Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 21, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ouster 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Conquist 3.50 1.1 2-1
9 9 Bernardino 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Biondi 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Dreampoint 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Mr. Connecticut 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Born Dancer 4.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Valentino’s Here 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Stand United 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pioneer Spirit 1.60 1 2-1
4 5 Hammerin Aamer 2.50 2.6 5-1
3 4 Crypto Cash 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 3 Caribbean (AUS) 6.00 4.4 8-1
1A 2 Dark Storm 1.60 5.7 11-1
5 6 Bourbon Bay 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 7 Kumar 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Endowed 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Millean 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Corkman 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Royal Tryst 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Abundant Honor 2.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Emperor’s Cause 10.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Uncle Water Flow 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Its All Relevant 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Giocare 4.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Runabout 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Amount 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Warrior in Chief 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Parsimony 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 O Shea Can U See 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Invest 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Disarmed 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Be of Courage 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Makar 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Factually Correct 6.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Joyful Ghost 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Tater and Tot 10.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 No Regard 8.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Kid Emerald 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Always Hustlin 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Camm’ Duke 30.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Fire King 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lifetime of Chance 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Liotta 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 M. C. Double R 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mattapoisett 0 0-1
5 5 Mattapoisett 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Liquidity Provider 1.20 2.2 4-1
1 1 Lute Player 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Adam’s Angel 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Winter Mischief 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Carats and Cake 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Ultima Copa 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ragtime Blues 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Amundson 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Poppy’s Pride 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Lastchanceatglory 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Night Ops 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mount Travers 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Bronx Bomber 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Caerus 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Orchestration 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Dripping Gold 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Daunt 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Hilliard 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Exult 12.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Good Medicine 10.00 7 13-1
7 7 Fighter in the Win 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 The Grey Wizard (IRE) 3.50 7.6 14-1
1 4 Mo Rewards 8.00 8 15-1
4 3 Saranac (FR) 30.00 9.6 18-1
1A 12 Perceived 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Bold Victory 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Always Connected 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mostly Harmless 6.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Goodmorning Angel 8.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Spicy Ginger 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Abstract Moment 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Lady Firefoot 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Divine Wine 4.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Linn Pier 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Ricelle 30.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Clairarific 12.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 Afraid Not 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Birthday Time 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.