Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 21, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sugoi 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Keystone Field 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Zoomer 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Two by Two 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Peekacho 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Fan Club 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Best Seller 0 0-1
8 8 Wildcat Girl 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Thatshowsherolls 8.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Best Seller 15.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Controlled Fire 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Basilica D Oro 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Lady Envoy 4.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Sure Enough 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Simpering Smile 10.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Jeff’s Joy 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Moriarty 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Xtrasaucewelldone 20.00 7 13-1
7 7 Ms. the Law 3.50 8.7 16-1
14 14 Cee Minus 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Marsanne 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Maoilin 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Miss Super Saint 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Singsong Bird 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Carry On 3.50 3 6-1
10 10 Runaway Mom 10.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Waters of Merom 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Ancient Brown 20.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Stylish Ash 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Gypsy Wife 30.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Resurrection Road 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 La Tourista 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lugan Knight 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Carcano 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Devils Red 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Recon 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Eddie M 20.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Hineni 15.00 10.8 20-1
12 12 Sunset Town 8.00 10.9 21-1
8 8 Surface to Air 20.00 11.1 21-1
4 4 Empire’s Best 8.00 11.2 21-1
9 9 Time Andbeyond 12.00 11.3 21-1
10 10 Runningforcash 30.00 11.7 22-1
11 11 Chance 10.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Eyes On Target 2.00 1 2-1
13 13 Light Fury 6.00 1 2-1
12 12 Yamato 15.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Creed 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Easy Time 5.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Red Hornet 30.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Bullseye Bun 50.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Alex Joon 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Dominican Pioneer 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Samburu (GB) 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Encourage 15.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Vivar 15.00 7.3 14-1
16 16 Markitoff 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mo Gotcha 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Barberini 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 American Hero 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Shaniah 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Code Name Kate 5.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Dawnland 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Shell Shock 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Arlyne’s Crown 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Legerity 20.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Condiment Girl 20.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 H. T. Xena 10.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Afleet Arlene 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Love of My Life 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Sparkle of Hope 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fracing Nasty 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Communication Memo 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Seas of Normandy 8.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Release McCraken 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Speed Institute 30.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Weyhill Road 2.50 9.2 17-1
3 3 Victory Formation 4.00 9.7 18-1
9 9 Barrelhouse 8.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Baseline Beater 12.00 10.6 20-1
10 10 Unclecharliesgift 20.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Schoolmaster (GER) 30.00 11 21-1
8 8 Santorini 10.00 11.1 21-1
12 12 Dingmann 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bellagamba (ARG) 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Disappearing Act 20.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Princess Fawzia 5.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Phantom Vision 15.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Sunny One 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Scotish Star (ARG) 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Saranya 20.00 3 6-1
2 2 Arm Candy 15.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Candace O 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Poca Mucha 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Pyramid Princess 30.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Perseverancia 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Gladys 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Jungle Juice (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Le Da Vida (CHI) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Skratch Kat 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Cocktail Moments 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Take a Stand 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Hoodooland 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Valentina Day 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Dorothea 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Ice Orchid 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Falconet 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Frippet 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tap Dancing Lady 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Quality Star 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Hedy Lamarr 8.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Tiffany’s Mo 12.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 English Treasure 20.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Mesaoria 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Dream Fly 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Arroblue 4.00 5 9-1
8 8 Broadband 30.00 5 9-1
6 6 Red Bee 50.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Such Sounds 15.00 10 19-1
10 10 Tiana 10.00 11.5 22-1
16 16 Twentytwenty Hoax 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Five Prizes 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Partyline 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sunroof 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Classic Coyne 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.