Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 22, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 California Twirl 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 He’s a Good Dancer 8.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Mamba Forever 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Weslan 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Led Tasso 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Connect Me 15.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Klimtomaniac 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Out of Alcatraz 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Riley Bee 20.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Great Rain 20.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Roundball Rock 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Qualified 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 O’Conner Sunset 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Valiant Praise 2.50 1 2-1
12 12 Flowerdew 20.00 1.3 3-1
10 10 Weehawken 6.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Frigid Lady 15.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Queenanne’srevenge 6.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Dooit 15.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Royal Dame 10.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Run and Gun 20.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Tiznow Mama 15.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Mischievous Gal 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Inspector Penny 20.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Acting 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lady Baron 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Insolito 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Bet He’s Ready 3.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Stand for Freedom 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 You Make Me Happy 15.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Derivative 3.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Supremely 15.00 3 6-1
10 10 Yolo Santiago 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Nimrods 4.50 6.1 11-1
6 6 Allo Enry 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Island Mischief 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lucky Smile 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Flippant 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Curly Ruth 3.50 1.3 3-1
6 6 Park Avenue 2.00 2 4-1
1 1 Pass the Plate 2.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Madone 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Ylikedis 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Oliviaofthedesert 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Semble Juste (IRE) 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Eyes of Gold 20.00 1 2-1
4 4 Twirled 2.50 2.4 5-1
10 10 Puffin 20.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Gavinera 30.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Poblano 12.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Catskill Humor 4.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Jaiky 15.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 She’s Fancy 3.50 9.2 17-1
8 8 Amber Cascade 12.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Ruthless Rua 15.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Fearless Viv 8.00 11 21-1
7 7 Liliesformillie 30.00 12.1 23-1
16 16 Flyin Bessie 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ju Ju Vip 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tabor Time 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adalinda 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Perryville S.) – Perryville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gunite 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Artorius 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Pinehurst 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Of a Revolution 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Hoist the Gold 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 B Dawk 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Provocateur 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Friar Laurence 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Alwayz Late 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Storm Kiss 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Empress Tigress 1.80 1.9 4-1
9 9 Touch of Class 15.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Artos (IRE) 12.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Mused (GB) 20.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Thunder Love (GB) 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Minute Waltz 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Sara Mia 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Honor That 30.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Twirling Savi 50.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Solid Tune 50.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Sharp Hero 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Trobairitz 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cant Be Touched 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shes Bout a Mover 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 War Campaign 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Strong Quality 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Tiz Rye Time 6.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Anejo 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 C Falls 20.00 4 8-1
6 6 Film Star 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 The Prince’s Spur 20.00 4.9 9-1
13 13 Kissalot 4.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Gate Runner 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Higginson 10.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Declare the Moon 30.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Tallahatchiebridge 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hippodrome 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Lexus Raven Run S.) – Lexus Raven Run S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Wicked Halo 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Fingal’s Cave 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Freedom Speaks 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Smash Ticket 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Last Leaf 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Colorful Mischief 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Union Lake 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Republique 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Midnight Stroll 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Good Soldier 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Shogun Warrior 12.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Pancake House 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 Push Button 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Mount Kisco 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Greys the Boy 10.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Timo 4.50 3.4 6-1
9 9 Inbound 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Lolas Beau 50.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Shannonrun 50.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Monjid 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Caroom 12.00 9.8 19-1
14 14 Blue Devil 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 King Curlin 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Vintage Year 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Centauro 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.