Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 23, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Soros 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Runway Magic 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Leblon 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 American Pure 10.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Primer Dimer 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Ready Pursuit 20.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Blue Kentucky 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Harold’s Cloud 0 0-1
1 1 Leola 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Rate Confirmation 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 No Easy Days 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Lucky’s Secret 12.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Once Upon a Dream 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Idratherbeblessed 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Further Evidence 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Aristocracy 4.50 8 15-1
6 6 Harold’s Cloud 8.00 9.3 18-1
12 12 Southern Crush 20.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Dario 10.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 First Class Harlow 20.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Arrogant Rider 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hineni 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Boudin 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Coal Boss 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Doc Ballard 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Chelonian 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Ulumalu 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Trepat 8.00 2 4-1
9 9 River Boy 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Eternally Grateful 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Martini Shot 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 O’Conner Sunset 4.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Attila the Dun 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Hyper Speed 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Magical Peapod 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Tiltingatwindmills 8.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Tellmeonasunday 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Gianna’s Gift 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Joy of Treasure 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Speightful Charge 15.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Juliaison 30.00 6 11-1
1 1 Malibu Marlee 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Maoilin 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Spanish Kingdom 4.50 1 2-1
13 13 Street Ready 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 King Vega (GB) 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Vintage Print 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Jais’s Solitude 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Be Here 20.00 5 10-1
10 10 Dark Shift (GB) 1.80 5.7 11-1
5 5 Perfect Speighty 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Skyro 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Decision Maker 12.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Natural Power (IRE) 12.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Newsworthy 20.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Shadow Sphinx 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Runnin’ Ray 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Starting Over 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Glynn County 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Happy Is a Choice 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Zed 3.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Bolt Forty Five 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Yacht Rock (IRE) 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Speakinofthedevil 4.50 7.7 15-1
9 9 Go Little Rockstar 30.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 More Than Five 6.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Time the Market 15.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Let It Ride Clyde 20.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Great Barrier 15.00 9 17-1
11 11 The Motto 20.00 9 17-1
7 7 Penny’s Prospect 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cravensworth 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Rood And Riddle Dowager S.) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Temple City Terror 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Luck Money 4.00 3 6-1
7 7 Beside Herself 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Stand Tall 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Core Values 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Sister Otoole 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Coastana 6.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Mia Martina 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Flying Fortress 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Go Big Blue Nation 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Queen Bourbon 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Park On the Nile 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Silverleaf 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Ice Orchid 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 High Fashion 15.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Music Street 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Bella Runner 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Big City Momma 6.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Midnight Ballerina 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Take Care 8.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Coastal Charm 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lyrical Poet 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Casanova Kitten 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Evan Sing 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Ian Glass 4.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Call Me Midnight 12.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Gallant Guy 20.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Agent Peter Graves 4.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Cloudy 6.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Dreamer’s Disease 20.00 10.8 20-1
5 5 Pure Panic 30.00 11.7 22-1
2 2 Sanctified 10.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Of the Moment 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.