Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 27, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Never Change 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Coastal Chaos 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Words of Wisdom 15.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Empire Builder 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Lord Captain 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Hey Boss 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Fort Defiance 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Super Design 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Camp David 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Carmichael 1.80 4.2 8-1
4 4 Maximum Impact 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Endless Sunset 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Can’t Hush This 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Reed Kan 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Gray Attempt 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 California Street 2.50 2 4-1
8 8 Montauk Daddy 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Wild Behavior 15.00 3 6-1
1 1 Spankhurst 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Trappe Valley 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Bold Adventure 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Derby Code 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Time for Trouble 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Bear Oak 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Can’tbetemall 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Leader of Men 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Eagle Pass 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Gigging 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Get On the Bus 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Two Sixtyone 15.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Aaliyah Ezri 15.00 3 6-1
10 10 Gal Wonder (GB) 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Fantail (GB) 20.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Mint Edition 5.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Under One Sky 20.00 6 11-1
12 12 Let’s Duet 12.00 8 15-1
4 4 Implosion 30.00 8 15-1
6 6 Sister Nell 20.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Chaton Rouge 30.00 9.5 18-1
13 13 Thrombocytopenia 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Bravo Kitten 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Rarify 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Malibu Toast 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Master Som 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Stellar Lily 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Catcha Later Mo 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Adalinda 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Classic Farewell 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Sweet Chablis 12.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 A. P. Lady 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Watch This Birdie 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Happy Boy Rocket 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Implementation 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Centurion 2.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Deep State 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Jr’s Gift 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Cool Rags 20.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Civics Class 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Blue Norther 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Unleash the Power 15.00 9 17-1
5 5 Calrissian 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Pearl Earring 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Personal Best 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Thisnameisokay 12.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Elle Est Forte 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Insatiable 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Silky Warrior (IRE) 20.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Lovely Princess 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 My Sweet Story 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Loved Reiko 10.00 5.6 10-1
12 12 Ms Merrabel 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Wilmore 50.00 10.4 20-1
2 2 Get Clear 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Roc’s Princess 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Balsa 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Salta 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Premium 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Mataro 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Ironsides 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Bolt Above 4.50 5.3 10-1
8 8 Santino’s Fantasy 30.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Life and Light 12.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Time to Cruise 15.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Talk to Tokey 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.