Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 28, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mahaamel 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Chasing Rainbows 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Lucky Boss 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Flint Ridge 6.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Eyes of Glory 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Lansdowne 30.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Filippo 15.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Writeitontheice 30.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Liberty Star 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Bucky Bik Coin 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Golden Luna 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Bourbon On Fire 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Willacy 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Supe 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mr. Mariah 30.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Perjury 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Infinite Zeal 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Silvestre 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Fly Home 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Golden Bandit 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hill of Tara 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Boudin 3.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Sir 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Mr Bob 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 A. P. Avatar 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 One Giant Leap 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Washington’s Union 8.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Coal Boss 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Burninhunkoflove 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Mean Jakey 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Cees Get Degrees 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Flags Up 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Wellman 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Mr. Thunderstruck 3.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Runaway Harry 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Stonevicious 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 A Little Wild 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Aztec Nights 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Murky 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Heavenly Sunday 3.50 3.9 7-1
12 12 All About Me 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Around the Sun 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 C C Cruise Control 8.00 5 10-1
11 11 Isabel Alexandra (IRE) 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Buttons 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Southlawn 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Katie Got Lucky 20.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Wave Skipper 30.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Star Wisher 30.00 10.9 21-1
13 13 Freydis the Red (FR) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Scarlet Stripe 0 0-1
4 4 Sunny River 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Scarlet Stripe 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Parents Pride 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Super Cool Storm 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Twentytwenty Hoax 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Fiddle 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Ravella 8.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Seize the Marquet 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Myrtlewood S.) – Myrtlewood S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Key of Life 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Somebody’s Problem 3.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Baby Got Backspin 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Satin Doll 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Lady Radler 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Take Charge Briana 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Flamand 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Time for Champagne 15.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Two Minute Drill 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Willow Bend 30.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Alva Starr 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Rubicon Valley View S.) – Rubicon Valley View S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 California Angel 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Sparkle Blue 12.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Bubble Rock 15.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 Turnerloose 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 My Philly Twirl 20.00 3.4 7-1
12 12 Bicameral 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Majestic Glory (GB) 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Lady Puchi 8.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Sunroof 50.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Heavenly Hellos 50.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Oakhurst 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Frippet 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Diamond Wow 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dolce Zel (FR) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Microcap 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Emmeline 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Tap Dancing Lady 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Powder River 2.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Moon Swag 3.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Princess of Cairo 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Big Bad Diva 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Xtrema 15.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Gerri B 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Outadore 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Totally Boss 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Boldor 4.00 1.9 4-1
11 11 Charcoal 5.00 2 4-1
6 6 Mark of the Z 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Francatelli 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Proven Strategies 15.00 4.5 9-1
13 13 Unified Report 10.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Inhalation (GB) 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Bob’s Edge 20.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Breaking the Rules 15.00 7.7 14-1
15 15 Knocker Down 6.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Hollis 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fore Left 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rockcrest 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 City Drifter 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.