Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 30, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Talladega 0 0-1
3 3 Birthday Munnings 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Talladega 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Midnight Pranks 4.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Two Eagles River 10.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 J J’s Joker 10.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Island Swagger 8.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Top d’Oro 12.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Big Hat Willie 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gabe 20.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Olazabal 12.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Funny Uncle 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Onasa 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Inventing Anna 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 High Class 5.00 6 11-1
5 5 Midsummer Soiree 15.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Bru Na Boinne 10.00 7 13-1
4 4 Parody 4.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Sure Can 8.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Doughty 6.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Sharp Tap 8.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 American Fairytale 20.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Fairy Hair 15.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Lady Ocean 12.00 12.4 23-1
15 15 Collected Glory 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 High End Vixen 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Goldblooded 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Varsity Blonde 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Moment to Shine 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Towhead 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Metaphysical 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Alpha Bella 4.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Mended We Stand 12.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 The Alys Look 6.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Tiny Temper 3.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Mo Shiro 15.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Roses and Rozay 30.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Souper Explosive 15.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Nomadic Pride 12.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Sun Valley Road 8.00 9.8 18-1
1 1 Perfect Rose 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Red Carpet Ready 0 0-1
5 5 First Hill 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Peterpam 10.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Market Profile 6.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Girl Named Charlie 5.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Patty Van Twinkle 20.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Red Carpet Ready 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Bo Derek 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Boardwalk Queen 4.50 3.8 7-1
12 12 Tough Legacy 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Okay Fine 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Lemon Bomb 6.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Teshima 12.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Two Item Saver 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Leipzig 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Klassy Bridgette 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Ladan 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Accident 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Magnificent Mile 4.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 Spielman 8.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Diversiful 8.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Bengals Go 5.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Pyrenees 3.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Sam Stormy 12.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Rocket Can 4.50 9.4 18-1
10 10 O Gangster 20.00 10.3 20-1
9 9 Pappy Wolfe 20.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Millers Rite 50.00 11.4 21-1
6 6 Toast to Coast 30.00 11.9 22-1
3 3 Wicked Secret 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dario 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Rags To Riches S.) – Rags To Riches S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stellar Lady 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Fun and Feisty 2.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Peacock Lass 3.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Hoosier Philly 2.50 5.3 10-1
8 8 Dre Me Less 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 T Max 4.50 6 11-1
4 4 East Shore 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Naughty Gal 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Joking Way 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Winnemac Avenue 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Backside Buzz 15.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Gordy’s Label 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Dreamwithinadream 15.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Ridgepoint Road 15.00 3 6-1
3 3 Brazen Boy 10.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Global Pride 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Crepe Yarns 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Moon Over Dubai 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Beau Day 30.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Reagan 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Golden Nugget 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Easy Action 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mo’s Treasure 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Overly d’Oro 50.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Tapit’s Conquest 3.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 Echo Again 2.50 7.7 14-1
8 8 Paddock Boss 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 American Speed 12.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Frank’s Honor 3.50 8.5 16-1
7 7 Highway Robber 12.00 9 17-1
10 10 B Minor 10.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Must Be the Money 10.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Counterspy 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Promise of Hope 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Bluelightspecial 20.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Chiquita Mosca 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Pioneer Parade 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Pretty Mischievous 1.20 5.3 10-1
7 7 Jokes On Blue 5.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Santa Fe Gold 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mustang Lady 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Closed Caption 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Street Sense S.) – Street Sense S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Top Recruit 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Honed 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Red Route One 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Frosted Departure 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Jace’s Road 3.50 6.1 12-1
5 5 Two Phil’s 8.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Western Ghent 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Fliparino 12.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Hayes Strike 12.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Boppy O 10.00 9.3 18-1
8 8 King Ice 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Macho Villa 30.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hunter’s Drive 20.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Tapit Shoes 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Desert Wolf 3.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Denington 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Fight’n Ready 8.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Sir Rock 8.00 7 13-1
10 10 Mo Saturdays 8.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Create Trouble 10.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Regimental 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Parkway 5.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Coal Boss 50.00 8.8 17-1
14 14 Escapologist 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Rio Moon 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rungius 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.