Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 5, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Idea Generation (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hola Gata 6.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Spelterini 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Kingmaking (GB) 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Natural Beauty 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Highland Grace 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Juniper’s Moon 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Tonic 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Lady Empire 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Words of Praise 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Iron Lion in Zion 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Ria’s Angel 1.60 2.6 5-1
8 8 Nicholas James 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Kong Loves a Fight 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Milano 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Achilles Heel 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Jonny Quist 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Sight Unseen 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Melting Snow 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Afleet Diva 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Viradia 3.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Summer Brew 6.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Missing Link 20.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Diva Banker 4.50 7.7 15-1
6 6 Shadolamo 10.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Daily Briefing 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Atlantic Beach S.) – Atlantic Beach S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Vacation Dance 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Inflation Nation (IRE) 1.40 3.6 7-1
2 2 Be of Courage 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Chiringo 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 The Sleepychipmunk 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Addicted to You 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Your Mission 1.80 7.6 14-1
5 5 Toga Dancer 8.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Sense a Giant 6.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Central Pride 6.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Whisky Warrior 12.00 10.2 19-1
4 4 Impazible Prince 20.00 12.1 23-1
8 8 Magic Truck 30.00 14.6 28-1
15 15 Reunion Tour 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Heroneandonly 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Media Sensation 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 On Palm Sunday 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 A Lister 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Midnight Express 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Steerage 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Bay 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lafitte’s Fleet 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Super John 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 F F Rocket 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Lost in Rome 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Tapizearance 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Secret Rules 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Risk Profile 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stewart Manor S.) – Stewart Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Redifined 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Dulcia 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Recinto Rompere 12.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Hurricane Debbie 15.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Dontlookbackatall 2.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Showgirl Lynne B 10.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Moonage Daydream 8.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Georgees Spirit 5.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Shidabhuti 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Leddy 6.00 1 2-1
4 3 Life Changer 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 4 Judge Davis 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Reggae Music Man 3.50 2.9 5-1
1A 9 American Gentleman 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Watasha 3.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Jester’s Song 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 5 Ryan’s Cat 6.00 5 9-1
9 10 Prisoner 15.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Dot’s Dollar 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Action Jackson 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Mr. Kringle 5.00 2 4-1
4 4 Agent Creed 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Bricco 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Voliero 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Excursionniste 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 King Moonracer 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Giramonte 20.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Alite 50.00 11.2 21-1
13 13 Fatima’s Blessing 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Citizen K 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Big Georges Kingdm 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Battle Scars 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Top Envoy 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Marinara Sauced 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Maseta 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Timbuktu 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Gooch Go Bragh 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Fieldstone 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Bless Bless 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Fast Gordon 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Breadman 6.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 Hard Rye Guy 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Ginnsu Warrior 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Spettro 10.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Pivotal Run 20.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Ableton 30.00 12.8 24-1
14 14 Mr. Connecticut 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 He’s Got It 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Impulsiveness 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.