Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 5, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Determinedly 20.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fashion King 4.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 Dakota Run 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Arabian Knight 2.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Expect More 8.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Encendido 12.00 8 15-1
3 3 Line to Gain 30.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Aerator 30.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Rocket and Roll 12.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Certain 15.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Glen Airy 30.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Reagan 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Kupp 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Messier 0 0-1
2 2 Nakatomi 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Robo Man 20.00 4.3 8-1
14 14 Fortin Hill 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Baytown Bear 15.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Night Time 20.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 No Shirt No Shoes 30.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Messier 4.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 Lofty Adjudicator 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Gun It 6.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Endorsed 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Silk Trade 10.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Long Range Toddy 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Doc Amster 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Tempt Fate 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint) – Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Goodnight Olive 0 0-1
Ce Ce 0 0-1
Goodnight Olive 0 0-1
1 1 Slammed 15.00 1 2-1
5 5 Frank’s Rockette 6.00 1.4 3-1
13 13 Echo Zulu 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Edgeway 15.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Ce Ce 4.00 2.4 4-1
11 11 Wicked Halo 10.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Lady Rocket 10.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Goodnight Olive 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Obligatory 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Chi Town Lady 20.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Sterling Silver 30.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Chain of Love (JPN) 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Hot Peppers 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint) – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Golden Pal 0 0-1
8 8 Golden Pal 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Campanelle (IRE) 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Arrest Me Red 15.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Casa Creed 6.00 6.4 12-1
14 14 Artemus Citylimits 30.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Caravel 20.00 7 13-1
13 13 Cazadero 20.00 7.6 14-1
16 16 Oceanic 30.00 8 15-1
6 6 Highfield Princess (FR) 3.50 10.2 19-1
1 1 Creative Force (IRE) 10.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Naval Crown (GB) 30.00 11.7 22-1
3 3 Emaraaty Ana (GB) 20.00 11.7 22-1
2 2 Flotus (IRE) 30.00 12.3 23-1
5 5 Go Bears Go (IRE) 30.00 12.5 24-1
15 15 Dancing Buck 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bran (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile) – Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pipeline 0 0-1
Slow Down Andy 0 0-1
7 7 Cody’s Wish 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Gunite 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Slow Down Andy 30.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Cyberknife 4.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Senor Buscador 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Simplification 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 Pipeline 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Law Professor 20.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Three Technique 30.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Informative 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Laurel River 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf) – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 In Italian (GB) 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Virginia Joy (GER) 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Family Way 20.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Moira 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Going to Vegas 20.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Lady Speightspeare 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Rougir (FR) 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Above the Curve 4.50 8.6 16-1
3 3 Nashwa (GB) 2.50 9.1 17-1
5 5 Tuesday (IRE) 8.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Toy (IRE) 20.00 11.5 22-1
6 6 Mise En Scene (GB) 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint) – Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Elite Power 0 0-1
9 9 Jackie’s Warrior 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Kimari 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Aloha West 12.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Flash of Mischief 30.00 5 9-1
3 3 O Besos 20.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Elite Power 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Willy Boi 30.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 American Theorem 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 C Z Rocket 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Manny Wah 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Super Ocho (CHI) 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By Pdjf) – Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By Pdjf

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Order of Australia (IRE) 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Regal Glory 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Smooth Like Strait 10.00 1.1 2-1
14 14 Domestic Spending (GB) 8.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Ivar (BRZ) 15.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Annapolis 10.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Shirl’s Speight 30.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Beyond Brilliant 20.00 3 6-1
15 15 Front Run the Fed 30.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Dreamloper (IRE) 6.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Modern Games (IRE) 3.50 9.1 17-1
13 13 Kinross (GB) 4.50 9.7 18-1
1 1 Pogo (IRE) 20.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Malavath (IRE) 15.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 King Cause 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Gear Jockey 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff) – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Society 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Search Results 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Malathaat 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Clairiere 4.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Nest 1.80 4.5 9-1
3 3 Secret Oath 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Blue Stripe (ARG) 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Awake At Midnyte 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf) – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 War Like Goddess 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bye Bye Melvin 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Nations Pride (IRE) 3.50 3.7 7-1
10 10 Red Knight 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Channel Maker 30.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Gold Phoenix (IRE) 20.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Stone Age (IRE) 15.00 5.4 10-1
13 13 Highland Chief (IRE) 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Master Piece (CHI) 20.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Mishriff (IRE) 6.00 9.6 18-1
5 5 Rebel’s Romance (IRE) 3.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Broome (IRE) 12.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Nautilus (BRZ) 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic) – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rich Strike 0 0-1
Rich Strike 0 0-1
Flightline 0 0-1
4 4 Flightline 0.60 1 2-1
2 2 Life Is Good 6.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Olympiad 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Epicenter 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Taiba 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Happy Saver 30.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Hot Rod Charlie 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Rich Strike 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Fall Harvest S. Presented By Mint Gaming Hall) – Fall Harvest S. Presented By Mint Gaming Hall

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Burning Ambition 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 Dalika (GER) 3.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Stolen Holiday 8.00 2 4-1
5 5 Shantisara (IRE) 1.20 2.2 4-1
2 2 Wakanaka (IRE) 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Henrietta Topham 20.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Sunny One 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Technical Analysis (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.