Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 10, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Totalizer 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Red Knobs 1.60 1.8 3-1
4 4 Test Pilot 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Mugsy Malone 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Ready Pursuit 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Maximum Impact 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Smooth Like Ice 8.00 1 2-1
12 12 She Has the Look 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Ms Hayley 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Lady Envoy 5.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Twelve Sharp 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Canary Nation 8.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Bogey Free 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Esser Fund 15.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Prana 10.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Rallying Heart 15.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 Lily’s Home 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ann Kor 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Glo Girl Glo 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Ontothenext 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mo’s Royal Flush 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lucksme 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Twentytwenty Hoax 20.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sweet Lady Ivanka 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Sunroof 3.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Apple Ever After 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 What’s to Do 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Tiffany’s Mo 3.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Partyline 2.50 7.3 14-1
4 4 Quick Romance 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 C J All the Way 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Norgay 3.50 1.5 3-1
10 10 Bourbon On Fire 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 My Favorite Uncle 12.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Scratchoff 4.50 8.4 16-1
1 1 Deus Ex Machina 5.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Cliquer 12.00 9 17-1
3 3 Grassroots 20.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Division Street 15.00 9.5 18-1
9 9 Strickland 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Social Mandate 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Expect the Boss 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Arlyne’s Crown 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Miss Marple 8.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Sis Boom Bob 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Eyeofthebeholder 30.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Pontiffany 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Kaiyas Song 30.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Inspeightful 10.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Cool Carol 8.00 11.8 22-1
2 2 Medway Queen 12.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Dilmunia 6.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Be Here Now 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Happysecret 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Tamara’s Way 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Secret Statement 12.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Sirius Light 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Titled Lady 10.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Ring Twice 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Unifying 4.50 8.3 16-1
10 10 For the Biscuit 12.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Savage Darling 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Trigger Happy 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Commander Compton 10.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Moon Dog 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Horse Daddy 15.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Thought 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mundo Mix 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Official Business 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Military Force 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Mark the Moose 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Altered Shot 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Perfect Happiness 15.00 2 4-1
1 1 Lady Goldstart 12.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Maybe I Will 20.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Miss T Too 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Ready for Change 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Ava’s Grace 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Minute Waltz 4.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ari Oakley 3.50 6.6 13-1
8 8 Quotabelle 20.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Alberta Sun 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hazy Command 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Nursekringledances 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Ladan 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Mor Happy Hours 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Crazy Face 4.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Lady Ocean 8.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Perfectly Golden 10.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Charlee Mae 6.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 King’s Mistress 6.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Gray Vixen 10.00 9.8 19-1
9 9 Our Lily Robin 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.