Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 11, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Time for Cupid 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lucy Jane 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Gin N Sin 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tian’ai Road 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 You’re Avoiding Me 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Bodieful 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Shrimpie 6.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Summer Autumn Rose 30.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Miss Bootsy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Klimt’s Muse 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Shezapistol 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Girls House 4.00 5 9-1
1 1 Alsanah 4.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Cortado 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Rolleston 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Storm Haven 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnight Dreaming 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Utopian Treasure 12.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Hendrix 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Small Sailor 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 M B’s Munning 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Shortly 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Dixie Fury 1.20 6.1 12-1
4 4 Wicked Review 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Jesuit 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Drop Anchor 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Grapnel 3.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Malibu Time 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Holy Cross 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 We Thank You 30.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Bronze Beast 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Steely Danza 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Mr. Peterkin 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mischievous Rogue 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wildcat Girl 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Queen of Chill 2.50 6.1 12-1
4 4 Lucksme 3.50 6.6 13-1
7 7 Sweet Slew 4.50 7.5 14-1
6 6 Midnight Society 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Sure Enough 12.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Dooit 8.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Xtrasaucewelldone 15.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Lady Brett Ashley 15.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Rag Town 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ipsum Gratus 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ship It 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Divine Hope 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Ineedagirllikeyou 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Shell Shock 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Beach Kitten 15.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Je Suis Rapide 10.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Louella Street 5.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Ballykeen 3.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
County Final 0 0-1
Be Bold Chasin 0 0-1
7 7 Francatelli 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 County Final 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Edge to Edge 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Tempt Fate 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Fore Left 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 My Man Flintstone 15.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Air Combat 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mr. Wireless 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mystic Night 3.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Five Star General 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Here Mi Song 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Chess Chief 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 South Bend 5.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Silver Prospector 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Vintage Year 4.00 1 2-1
15 15 Ten Gauge 2.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 Good Soldier 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Push Button 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Habitus 30.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Nashoba’s Joy 4.00 6 11-1
8 8 Inbound 5.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Lolas Beau 30.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Qaader 12.00 10.3 20-1
9 9 Blue Devil 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 King Curlin 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Miracle On Ice 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mucho Mojo 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 He’s a Angel 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Caroom 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.