Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 12, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dr. Forman 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Rye Humor 5.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Justin’s Quest 2.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Money for Mischief 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Improbable Story 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Mason A. P. 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Wherewegoin 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Surfer Dude 15.00 1 2-1
5 5 Higher Standard 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Strobe 0.60 3 6-1
1 1 Spankster 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Knocker Down 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Texas Red Hot 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Steinbeck 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Mowins 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ghostly Girl 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Guns n’ Lilies 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Her Ladyship 12.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mo Divine 30.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Inside Girl 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Miss Peabody 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Alexa Lou 10.00 4 8-1
5 5 Vogelsang 30.00 5 9-1
8 8 Aisha R N 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Undoubtedly 12.00 5.3 10-1
14 14 Lexa 15.00 6.5 12-1
13 13 Graceful Union 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Medaglia Forever 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Madly Dancing 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bolt for Allison 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Spycraft 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Seven Scents 5.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Petit Verdot 20.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Towing 30.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 C C’s Kitten 30.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Shelly Island 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Boat’s a Rockin 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Creative Credit 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bad Beat Brian 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Chasing Artie 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 My Pal Mattie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shes All Woman 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Invaluable 4.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Maoilin 6.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Longleggedlaverne 4.50 4 7-1
8 8 Hashtag Lucky 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 No More Mask 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Teller to Sing 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Foreign Exchange 10.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Destiny’s Darling 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Souper Catch 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Iywaan 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Bless the Kitten 3.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Peekacho 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Moment 6.00 6 11-1
9 9 Moti 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Malibu Star 4.50 6.7 13-1
8 8 Time for Trouble 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 He Takes Charge 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Blue Steel 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bye Bye Bertie 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Misty Veil 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Good Fight 15.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Out of Sorts 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Judy’s Way 50.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Candy Raid 12.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Cherokee Song 50.00 7.2 14-1
14 14 World of Wonder 5.00 9 17-1
13 13 Kimberley Dream 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Midnight Bella 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Peace With Honor 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Starship Mallomar 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Wicked Groove 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sunny One 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Beverly Park 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 The Wolfman 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Hero Tiger 12.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Thirsty Betrayal 10.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Don’t Forget 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Joyful Heart 8.00 6 11-1
13 13 Elle’sbigseacret 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Nimble Beast 20.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Crazy Legs Hirsch 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Game Boy Benny 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Honorary Degree 15.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Powerfully Built 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Silver Moon Road 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Divine Leader 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Ragtime Blues 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Family Man 3.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Cajun Brother 12.00 4.2 8-1
12 12 The Queens Jules 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Lt. Junior Grade 6.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Alexandros 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 No Burn 3.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 So Dialed In 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 First Glimpse 12.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Soaring Bird 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Powell 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Intrepid Heart 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Calibrator 15.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Twelve Volt Man 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Decision Maker 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Frosted Grace 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Keystone Field 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Tiz Rye Time 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Digital 15.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Benevengo 3.50 7.2 14-1
10 10 Ournationonparade 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Onenightstandards 2.50 1 2-1
16 16 Palace Coup 2.50 2.5 5-1
9 9 Big Agenda 3.50 3.1 6-1
10 10 Carom 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Samui Sunset 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Red Flag Alert 20.00 7.1 13-1
15 15 Shady McGee (IRE) 6.00 8 15-1
2 2 Rogue Element 20.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Bear Oak 30.00 10.4 20-1
5 5 Underdressed 15.00 10.5 20-1
12 12 Markitoff 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Freedom Matters 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 On a Spree 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Max K. O. 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Major Wager 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Driftwood 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.