Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 13, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Double Dealer 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 King Doodle 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Conspiracy Fact 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Biggie 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Paid Twice 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Onemorandthecheck 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Calipari 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Shakedown Street 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Lead Actor 12.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 B G Lee 5.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Big Hello 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 American Silver 30.00 10.5 20-1
13 13 Get Through 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Full Impact 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Strike Me Down 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Turfy 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Soaring Bird 3.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Aggressivity 4.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 With Verve 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Big Thorn 4.50 7 13-1
6 6 Big Nick 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Boxster 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Wilderzar 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Permafrost 10.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Canal 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Swiss Guard 10.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Cashmeup 10.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Iconicus 6.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Funny Uncle 30.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Reprehend 12.00 9.7 18-1
9 9 Sant’ Antimo 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Retained 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Golden Simms 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Savage Kiss 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Humor Me Please 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Famed 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Diva Treva 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Unsolved Mystery 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 More Than Vows 4.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Hidden Connection 1.20 5.9 11-1
1 1 Let’s Be Clear 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lady Baffled 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Montauk Point 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Andy Cant 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Maasai Warrior 3.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Laytown 4.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Old Point 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Pancake House 3.50 5.7 11-1
2 2 Iceatude 8.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Napa Valley 15.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Turtar Mara 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rungius 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Prairie Dunes 5.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Perform 5.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Laver 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 My Imagination 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Read On 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Chance 15.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Dario 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Kupp 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Baseline Beater 8.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Banishing 15.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Emperor’s Appeal 15.00 10.3 20-1
15 15 Hardy Choice 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spoiler 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Meant to Be Lucky 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Southern District 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ethical Judgement 15.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Runnin’ Ray 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Kittansett 10.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 The Reds 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Eleven Central 10.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Major Fed 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Farmington Road 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Run Classic 2.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Happy American 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Skyro 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Dream Supreme S.) – Dream Supreme S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Joyful Cadence 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sconsin 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Club Car 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Palm Cottage 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Coppelia 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Sharp Hero 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Bet On Sunshine S.) – Bet On Sunshine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Top Gunner 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Miles Ahead 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Sibelius 2.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Mucho 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Bango 3.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Williston Way 20.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Torontotoro 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Long Range Toddy 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Surveillance 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Kavod 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (River City H.) – River City H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 In Love (BRZ) 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Pixelate 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Hozier 30.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 English Tavern 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Militarist 30.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Starting Over 30.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Rupp N Ready 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Max K. O. 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Street Ready 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Field Pass 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Accredit 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cellist 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beatbox 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Set Piece (GB) 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.