Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Motagally 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Subdued 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Celerity 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 What a Country 2.00 4 8-1
4 4 Make Noise 2.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Bold Adventure 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 King Cairo 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Catchusifyoucan 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Why Behave 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Forever Home 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Supertaleofhoudini 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Zmuda 3.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Suporb 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Lucky Lauren 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Dance On Over 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cost Basis 0 0-1
7 7 Summer Splash 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cost Basis 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Boldish 12.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Belfast Boy 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 That Khenny 4.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Ain’t Wasting Time 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Emerald Express 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Big Bad Diva 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Enchanted Nile 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Xtrema 6.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Gianna’s Gift 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Tiltingatwindmills 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Waters of Merom 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Good Penny 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Icon 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Slim Man 2.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Arabian Prince 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Button Boy 3.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Britain’s Kitten 4.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Ignitis 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Schmoozin 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Valiant Praise 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Goldblooded 6.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Blame Day 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Indian Irish 6.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Singing Emma 8.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 English Charm 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 All the Envy 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Grapes for Eloise 8.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Story Channel 20.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Lady Baron 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cees Get Degrees 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Cold as Hell 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Mumayaz 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 B D Valeski 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Spend Benjamins 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Pledgeofallegiance 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Morning Cup 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Flyin Bessie 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Work of Fiction 15.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Collected Glory 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Dazzling Blue 2.50 5 9-1
2 2 Moment to Shine 4.50 5.7 11-1
6 6 Dagmar 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Corner Kick 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Ju Ju Vip 12.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Cecile 15.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Aunt Mischief 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Customer Driven 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sunny Isle Beach 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Casa de Goat 1.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Pistol 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Romance Novel 10.00 6 11-1
3 3 Traverse 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Braganza 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Accident 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Winters Lion 4.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Recker Point 3.00 4 8-1
7 7 Hunter’s Drive 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Dr. Hyde 12.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Klimtomaniac 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Eight Straight 6.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Ranseur 10.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Perfect Upstart 8.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Risky Choice 30.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Motown Collection 10.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.