Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 17, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Desoto’s War 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Dudley 12.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Lake Tahoe 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Hot Pastrami 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 West Warpath 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Chasin Charlie 30.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Plemmonston 6.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Z U At the Races 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sweet Truffles 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Seiver 3.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Sweet Valeria 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 La Chapeau 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Verdandi 2.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Isabel de Clare 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Jackie’s Love 8.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Jams Top Shelf 30.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Dogwoods Becca 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My My Munny 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Shaniah 2.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 My Dams Atitude 12.00 4 8-1
6 6 Argumental 1.80 4.8 9-1
1 1 H. T. Xena 4.50 6 11-1
5 5 Love of My Life 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rate Confirmation 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Boudin 3.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Brilliant Colors 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Violent River 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gettin Paid 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Feeling 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Whoop Gone 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Golden Simms 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Retained 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lightning Struck 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Atta Boy Anthony 8.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Camp David 4.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Caminero 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Iberville 3.50 4 8-1
5 5 Gormleys Got Game 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Double Thunder 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Classic King 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shadow Matter 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Ash Flat 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Spankhurst 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Gray Attempt 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Hooperdrivesthboat 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Tango Charlie 3.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Powell 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Sir 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Release McCraken 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Global Surprise 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Seas of Normandy 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Fight Fiercely 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Western Command 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Tap Dance Tango 10.00 6 11-1
9 9 First Class Harlow 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Paynted Blue 12.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Chloe’s Dream 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pioneer of Medina 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Warrior Johny 1.40 2 4-1
4 4 Droppin G’s 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Awesome Aaron 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Midnight J J 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Major General 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Gunton Roe 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sparty Sense 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Dark Timber 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Back to Normal 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Let My People Go 8.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 B Sudd 5.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Improbable Journey 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Skelly 1.60 7 13-1
11 11 You Make Me Happy 12.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Willtorun 10.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 First Crowned 30.00 10.1 19-1
1 1 Seize the Night 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Defining Purpose 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Tequila Empire 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Ladan 15.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Thestral 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Perfect Rose 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Big Dig 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Gonna Cut It 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Rockabillie 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Stage Bell 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.