Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 18, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Decanted 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 C’Est Magnifique 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Scat Tu Tap 15.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 American Raider 10.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Nanga Parbat (GB) 20.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Good Rapport 30.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Bingood to Knowya 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Monster Dreams 20.00 5 9-1
10 10 Keltic Knight 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Break the Ice 50.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 War Officer 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fightertown 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Conversing 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Yorkshire Prince 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Winter Pool 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Bourbon Calling 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 American Power 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Grumps Little Tots 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Prince of Pharoahs 4.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Ebben 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Empire Sky 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Dreampoint 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Sharp Sensation 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 Brennan’s War 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Fuoco 3.00 5 9-1
5 5 Ripe for Mischief 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Rough Draft 8.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Capleton 20.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Stonecoldwarrior 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Today’s Flavor 1.20 SCRATCH
2 2 Built to Last 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Clash A. J. 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Outasite 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Gaslight 15.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Drink the Wind 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Win for Gold 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Hatch 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Khafre 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Joey Loose Lips 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Miss Fashionista 0 0-1
5 5 Kara Para 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sweetest Princess 3.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Starts Now 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Miss Fashionista 2.50 5.8 11-1
7 7 Sweet Blush 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Joey the Fish 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Queenpin 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 My Lips Are Sealed 15.00 1 2-1
9 9 Run Up the Score 12.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Personal Best 2.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Caironi 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Unruly Julie 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Lady Thornhill 20.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Home for Christmas 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Ever Summer 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Rhombique 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Ensemble (IRE) 4.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Wasp 1.20 SCRATCH
13 13 Suspended Campaign 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Diane’s Comet 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Southern Flag 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 American Law 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Vodka Mardini 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Chucka Moon 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Safe Bet 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Golden Purchase 30.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Smoke and Heat 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Frank’s Art 0 0-1
5 5 Deep Cover 10.00 1 2-1
6 7 Phantom Smoke 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 8 Not Phar Now 8.00 4.6 9-1
1A 6 Ghost Giant 2.50 5 9-1
1 4 Klickitat 2.50 5.2 10-1
8 9 Battle Station 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 11 Runningwscissors 8.00 6 11-1
9 10 Neuro 6.00 7.6 14-1
3 2 Frank’s Art 3.50 7.9 15-1
4 3 Gongheifatchoy 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 1 Bar Fourteen 20.00 8.6 16-1
12 13 Jemography 4.50 SCRATCH
11 12 Scilly Cay 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Norman Queen 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Ribot’s Valentine 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Kant Hurry Love 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Liberty Flame 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Fancy Feline 4.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Doc Doc Rock 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Carbon 3.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Bunty Windermere 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Peak of Chic 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lil Commissioner 10.00 1 2-1
7 8 Supply Chain 8.00 1.1 2-1
2 1 Bustin the Rules 5.00 1.1 2-1
8 9 Kumar 5.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Jack the Cat 10.00 2.4 4-1
1 2 Durkin’s Call 2.00 3.1 6-1
9 10 Monarchs Glen (GB) 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 O Shea Can U See 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 Scotty 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 11 Super Wicked Charm 30.00 7.9 15-1
1A 7 Great Workout 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.