Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 18, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rewire 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Absolute Courage 1.60 2 4-1
3 3 Away From Home 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Workinfromhome 15.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Bright Spark 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 High Fashion Lady 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Need Some Money 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Fabulosity 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Key to Success 3.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Best Seller 2.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Fair Folly 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Julia’s Chardonnay 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Endless Sunset 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Simovitch 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Saqeel 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Waita Minute Hayes 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Never Change 1.60 5.1 10-1
3 3 Mugsy Malone 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fantail (GB) 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Jumakan Bourbon 10.00 4 7-1
2 2 Joan’s Way 2.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Mrs. Nushi 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Brooklynn’s Dabomb 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Eclipsed 8.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Monocacy 6.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Sweet Fraulein 20.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Friend 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ballinonabudjet 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 On a Spree 5.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Patriot Drive 3.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 John’s Rock 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Eagle Pass 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Makabim 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 King’s Mischief 10.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Mean Machine 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tabor Time 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 A. P. Lady 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Jenny Lind 5.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Royal Spa 4.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Nancy Spain 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Leipzig 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Brylee 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Klassy Bridgette 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Waywardness 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Condiment Girl 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Paris Kentucky 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Mejthaam 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Let’s Duet 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Coastal Charm 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 My Good Fortune 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Positano Sunset 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Roman Goddess 3.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Broken Hearts Bay 4.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Hughes Clues 5.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Kid’s Last Laugh 12.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Wish It 5.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Origami Girl 15.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 High End Vixen 20.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 She’s Lookin Lucky 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Monition 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bizzee Channel 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Current 4.00 2.2 4-1
13 13 Bullseye Bun 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Point Me By 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Straight Answer (GB) 3.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Alex Joon 6.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Super Design 20.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Bay Street Money 8.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Risk Manager 8.00 8 15-1
3 3 Sugoi 12.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Mailman Money 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Rupp N Ready 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Carmichael 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Be Here 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Big Blue Line 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Militarist 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Terranova 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Parents Pride 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Amaryllis Kiss 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Waiting On Wendy 10.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Sweets Maker 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Tales of Home 5.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Sweet Baby Ray 20.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Crimaldi 6.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Bainbridge Dancer 12.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.