Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 18, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Populist 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Better Watch Out 20.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Impact Player 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Hug the Munny 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Flashy Brew 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Maintainance Matt 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Drewzano 4.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Underdog 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Total Malice 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Bellamy Cay 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Izeonpoint 3.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Vita 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Romantic Beast 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 J Z’s First 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Post Close 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Greeley Went West 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Mau Mau 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Exchequer 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Rockdale 4.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Tio Blas 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Super Wise 6.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Fifteen Love Back 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Big World S.) – Big World S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Winning Romance 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Fort Polk 3.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Cheapskate Diva 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 She’s Gone d’Wild 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 A G’s Charlotte 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Wholelottamo 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Shelli’s Angel 20.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Miss Kennedy 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Guitar Woman 3.50 1 2-1
7 6 Strawberry Sundae 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 2 Hopeitsmyluckyday 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Tap Iron Fist 15.00 5.9 11-1
11 10 Agami 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 12 Michelles Lil Star 5.00 9.2 17-1
10 9 Norah G 8.00 9.3 17-1
6 5 Highly Wicked 8.00 9.5 18-1
12 11 Queen Trigger 5.00 9.8 18-1
8 7 Jazz Jazz Jazz 12.00 10.2 19-1
5 4 Shes a Lucky Rebel 12.00 10.7 20-1
9 8 Dat Guitar 15.00 11.7 22-1
1A 13 Madison’s Screen 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial S.) – Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Free Drop Maddy 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Starship Jambalaya 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Don’tcallmepatsy 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Cced for Steph 4.50 3 6-1
4 4 Addi Bug 15.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Dolly’s Guitar 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Pursuit l’Harmonie 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Janet Is Ready 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Myredwhiteandblue 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Motivating 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Mo Moves 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Lucky Ain’t Enough 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Natural Red 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Wolf Hunter 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Prince Cosmo 8.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 La Boucane 15.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 De Saix 8.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Speed Warning 4.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Happy Ticket S.) – Happy Ticket S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ova Charged 0.60 1 2-1
3 3 Spirited Beauty 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Fame Feather 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Snowball 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Drop Dead Sexy 8.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Medley 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Miss Jana 12.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Lake Marie 20.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Sumitup 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Forbidden Fruit 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Galaxy Thirtysix 3.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Zydeco Music 1.80 2.2 4-1
6 6 Ourperfectprincess 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Shacklelackalacka 20.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Seriously Sassy 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.