Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 19, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Loot the Moon 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 The Big Mozz 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Scotch No Rocks 6.00 2.7 5-1
12 12 Myuddermamasapaint 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Supe 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Southern Sense 4.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Timehascome 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Brody’s Fly 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Spuns Son 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Ra’s Al Ghul 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Nicholas Jones 6.00 10 19-1
2 2 Summer Lover 15.00 11.3 21-1
5 5 Giro d’Oro 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Big Pete 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lansdowne 0 0-1
4 4 Romancer 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Holiday House 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Lansdowne 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Steely Danza 2.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mischievous Rogue 5.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Midaswellrun 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Suitable 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Yacht Rock (IRE) 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Led Tasso 4.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Duplantis 4.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Collectorate 10.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Coach Rogers 12.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Born Flawless 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 King Shaman 20.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Winning Dance 15.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Let’s Go Random 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Moon Magic Chrissy 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Girl Afraid 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Saenz 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Frigid Lady 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Condensation 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Happy Clouds 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Cupids Payday 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cape Trafalgar 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Woodline 2.50 3 6-1
8 8 Cloud Without Rein 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Town Branch 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Yolo Santiago 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Yodason 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 My Road 20.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Without a Song 8.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 F Five 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bromley 0 0-1
3 3 Reagan 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Easy Action 2.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Dream Force 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Eddie M 12.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Lark’s Mischief 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Shake Up 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Bromley 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Chicago’s Gray 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Kentucky Joker 20.00 7 13-1
10 10 Libertango 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Mo Hope 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Explosive 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Ampersand 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Cartier Cat 15.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Blue Kentucky 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Bonus Appreciation 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Juanita’s Express 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Pure Panic 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Mulberry Street 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Criminal Defense 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Arthurian 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Little Alex 15.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Primer Dimer 8.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Kidyounot 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Communication Memo 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Carcano 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Collier’s Time 8.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Surface to Air 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Corona Bolt 4.50 5 9-1
4 4 Ridgepoint Road 20.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Secret Pocket 15.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Mutaawid 10.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Event Detail 10.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Commander Rex 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Pinfire 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Caldee 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Fairchild 3.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Fair Game 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Barista 4.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Undisturbed 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Roughly a Diamond 5.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 New Roo 12.00 8 15-1
3 3 Laura’s Charm 12.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Justify My Love (BRZ) 5.00 9 17-1
13 13 Cherokee Song 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Misty Veil 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wicked Groove 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Illiogami 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Polka Polenta 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dreamworker 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Microcap 8.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Jag Warrior 3.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Lady Frosted 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Chilukki S.) – Chilukki S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mariah’s Princess 0 0-1
1 1 Coach 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Liberty M D 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Mariah’s Princess 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 She Can’t Sing 2.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Ice Orchid 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Empire House 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Center Aisle 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 War Campaign 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Strong Quality 3.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Complete Agenda 5.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Gate Runner 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Ten Gauge 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 O P Firecracker 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Chrome Republic 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Jr’s Gift 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Doctor Nash 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.