Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 19, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Action Potential 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 New Year’s Party 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Halfglamorous 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Point of Victory 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Kick N Kiss 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Moment to Dream 4.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Custom for Carlita 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kittenofthe Court 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Meet Me 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Mo Bling 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lady Churchill 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Lovely Lady May 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Averi Ever After 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Optimal Courage 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Mr. Production 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 D Two 3.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Nosy Banker 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Rocky Bar Six 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Jeb’s Lucky Eight 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Cryptozonic 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Half Again 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Beauregard 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Everlovinghand 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Silver Galaxy 4.00 3 6-1
10 10 Mr. Four Sevens 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Standing Man 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Battle of Will 5.00 6 11-1
5 5 Grief 8.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Cohere 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Cherokee Takeover 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S.) – Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Late September 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Blackteca 12.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Bisping 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Not On Herb 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 King’s Lute 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Flashy Boy 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Calicoco 6.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Problem Child 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Master Som 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Camp Akeela 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Oath of Allegiance 10.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Im Singled Up 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Miss Shipman 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Early Dawn 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Hayunevano 4.50 7.1 13-1
4 4 Munndiva 6.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Kaylee Lou 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Scott’s Scoundrel S.) – Scott’s Scoundrel S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Who Took the Money 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Highland Creek 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Grand Luwegee 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Behemah Star 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Big Chopper 15.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Maga Man 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Cosmic Train 20.00 5 9-1
11 11 Mageez 20.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 More Memories 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Treys Midnite Moon 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Sunday Breeze 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Monte Man S.) – Monte Man S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bertie’s Galaxy 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Brian’s Iron Mike 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Creole Charlie 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Takes Two to Tango 4.00 5 9-1
10 10 Unified Report 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Scarlettsblackjack 6.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Janets Jay Jay 8.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Kingofbrokenhearts 8.00 8 15-1
7 7 Mike J 15.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Hail State 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kajun Karma 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Stiff Drink 8.00 2 4-1
1 1 Anders Smile 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Tucker the Grump 30.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Jack Hammer 3.50 8.1 15-1
12 12 Comanche Warrior 8.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 I Don’t Venmo 4.50 9.9 19-1
4 4 Z Resurrection 10.00 10.2 19-1
3 3 The Fact Is 20.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Goldenlute 20.00 11.2 21-1
11 11 Came Out Kickin 20.00 11.5 22-1
14 14 Buck Doll Taylor 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Up N Gone 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Righteous Freedom 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.