Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 20, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nana’s Gray 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mohaylady 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Nostalgia 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Coach Jer’s Joy 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Southern Sky 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Ain’t She a Pistol 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Undecoded 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Midsummer Soiree 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Lady Ocean 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Smooth Like Ice 5.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Three Sport Coats 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Wild Rosey 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Timely Secret 6.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Proud Performer 4.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Icy Stare 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Back Beat 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Overly d’Oro 10.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 I’m Wide Awake 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Steele Money 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Special Operator 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Take the Charge 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Big Beemster 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Peyton’s College 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lollygag 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Gin N Sin 4.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Pistolpackinpolly 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Bidofhoney 5.00 7 13-1
5 5 Lil Red Cloud 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Dogwoodsmilliejane 10.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Pacific Grove 20.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Undercover Lady 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Inventing 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 High Fashion 6.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 She’s Keen 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Music Street 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Take Care 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Park On the Nile 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Under One Sky 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lighter Knot 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Electric Sense 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Lexington Diamond 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Taxed 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Spunk 30.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Psychedelic 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Revenue Train 3.50 5.8 11-1
3 3 Amber Cascade 10.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Inspector Penny 15.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Kilmorey 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cerchi 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jayla 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sabalenka 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Up to Something 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Freydis the Red (FR) 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Safeen 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Jet Setting 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Southlawn 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Chiquita Mosca 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Cha Cha Tap 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Moriarty 30.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Peacock Lass 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Angitude 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Fire On Time 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Magic Quest 10.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Mischievous Diane 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Altered Shot 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Zainalarab 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Hazy Command 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Flatter Me Silly 10.00 6.3 12-1
14 14 Compelling Smile 30.00 7 13-1
12 12 Bombdiggity 15.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Repealing 4.00 8 15-1
4 4 Rookery 20.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Edgee Angel 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Guana Cay 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Backyard Money 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Kant Believe It 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Top Gun Girl 2.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Comedy Act 3.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Icy River 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 No Drama Momma 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Rock Star Parking 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Vaccine of Hope 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.