Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 24, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Everyotherwon 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Funnybet 2.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Ancient Brown 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Aidanike 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Lookin Royal 10.00 5 9-1
5 5 La Tourista 5.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Especially You 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Goodbetterbest 0 0-1
2 2 Tribal Spirit 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Goodbetterbest 2.50 2 4-1
10 10 Right Now 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Free Spirited 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Simpering Smile 4.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Lady Envoy 10.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Frosty Diva 15.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Sure Enough 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Royal Dame 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Xtrasaucewelldone 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bluegrass Parkway 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Huge Bigly 15.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Silver Dust 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Bandit Swanson 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Full Charge 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Max Express 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Go Emi 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Drive for Fun 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Carbonite 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Chasing Rainbows 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Centurion 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Miacomet 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 French Composer 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Blue Norther 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Boardwalk Queen 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Ruthless Rua 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Sure Can 2.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 American Fairytale 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Badgeland 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 D’oro Street 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Sharp Tap 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Super Spirit 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Markswoman 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Little Sister Sue 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Itdowhatitdo 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Delightof the Nile 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Vow 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Story Hour 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Burnt Match 15.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Midnight Tango 8.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Bow to None 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Upstriker 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Brawndo 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Cold as Hell 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Stonevicious 20.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Flags Up 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Money Mike 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Olliemeister 3.00 6 11-1
8 8 Red Label 10.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Lucky Boss 5.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Misty Veil 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Illiogami 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Tap Dancing Lady 10.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Princess of Cairo 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Microcap 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Powder River 3.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Temper Time 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Jag Warrior 6.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Dorothea 20.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Lady Frosted 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Invulnerable 0 0-1
6 6 Dakota Run 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Speakinofthedevil 3.50 4.7 9-1
12 12 Brazen Boy 6.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Aerator 8.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Commerce Comet 6.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 Hardmoneymuchachos 15.00 9.8 18-1
9 9 Onasa 8.00 10.6 20-1
7 7 Cravensworth 6.00 11.5 22-1
1 1 Invulnerable 10.00 11.5 22-1
2 2 Uncle Reg 12.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Stuck N Snow 12.00 11.9 22-1
4 4 Stray Cat 15.00 11.9 22-1
14 14 Winger 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Not So Holy 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Track Shot 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Falls City S.) – Falls City S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Moon Swag 0 0-1
4 4 Played Hard 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Leader of the Band 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Moon Swag 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 She’s All Wolfe 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Ava’s Grace 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Bellamore 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Cardinal S.) – Cardinal S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dalika (GER) 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Flippant 12.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Adventuring 1.80 1.6 3-1
1 1 Pass the Plate 10.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Curly Ruth 10.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Lake Lucerne 30.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Sunny One 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Disappearing Act 30.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Perseverancia 12.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Wave of Goodness 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Eyes of Gold 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mischievous Gal 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Ring Twice 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Secret Statement 3.00 6 11-1
2 2 Tituba 4.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Icicles 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Gray Vixen 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Perfect Rose 30.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Lady With a Cause 12.00 7 13-1
10 10 Mor Happy Hours 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.