Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 25, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Spa City 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Whiskey Double 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Girolamo’s Attack 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Fan Club 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Two by Two 2.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 Contact Tracing 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Will’s Secret 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Graysonsmacho Gal 2.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Candy Raid 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Jungle Juice (IRE) 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Republique 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Prince of Roses 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Talkscheap 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ironsides 15.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Led Tasso 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Out of Alcatraz 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 River Boy 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Ransam Paynter 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Eight Straight 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ship It 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Gimme Candy 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Ineedagirllikeyou 15.00 2 4-1
4 4 Hal’s Dream 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Wicked Wonder 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Lantern’s Candy 3.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Inspeightful 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Monocacy 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Deep State 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Fort Defiance 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Mr Creed 4.50 3.8 7-1
10 10 Coastal Chaos 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Conspiracy Fact 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Beyblader 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Paid in Full 10.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Lord Captain 10.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 One Cool Dude 10.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Alexis N Niko 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Lily’s Creed 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mean Sue 3.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 She’s Jersey Tuff 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Singing Emma 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Catherine Blaze 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Classic Farewell 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Lady Strum 5.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Sloan Street 12.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Sense of Heart 10.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Timbavati 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hometown Hero 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Speed Boat 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Oncoming Train 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Nineties Country 4.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Out Work’n 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Trigger Happy 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 El Franco 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Atras 3.50 6.4 12-1
8 8 Mr. Thunderstruck 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Tiger Moon 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Saint Eros Girl 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Legerity 12.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Cant Be Touched 15.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sue Ellen Mishkin 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Waters of Merom 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Shezz Koldazice 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Solid Tune 6.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Super Cat Lady 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Strong Silent 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Honey Run 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Mrs. Revere S.) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bubble Rock 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 California Angel 2.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Fancy Martini 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Lady Puchi 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Lovely Princess 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Sweet Lady Ivanka 15.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Quality Star 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Joyful Applause 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 She’s Gone 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Take a Stand 20.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Have A Good Day (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gulfstream Way 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Milliken 6.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Spartan Army 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Call Me Fast 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Appeal Denied 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Kupuna 10.00 4.6 9-1
14 14 Seal Beach 6.00 5 9-1
12 12 Zippin Gigi 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Angkor 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Dr. Perry 5.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Legendary Lore 20.00 9.2 17-1
15 15 Mac’s Time 20.00 11.9 22-1
6 6 Emperador 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Classic Moment 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Graphic Detail 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 American Icon 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 West Will Power 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Fulsome 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Proxy 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Rich Strike 2.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Injunction 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Last Samurai 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Trademark 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Off the Charts 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Star Table 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Shady Road 1.60 2.8 5-1
4 4 Twentytwenty Hoax 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Awesome Ally Vee 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Broadband 15.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Sweet Curalina 12.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Mo Happy 15.00 9 17-1
5 5 Royal Take Charge 6.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.