Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 26, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Determinedly 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Desert Wolf 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Prairie Dunes 3.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 Dreamwithinadream 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Top d’Oro 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Sun Thunder 10.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 My Sanctuary 20.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Shopper’s Revenge 6.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Fame 8.00 8 15-1
10 10 Noises Off 12.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Smile Mon 20.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Sense You Asked 15.00 10 19-1
12 12 Crossing 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Towhead 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Roses and Rozay 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Comparative 4.50 7.1 13-1
12 12 Theroanrunner 5.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Mija 6.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Harmonica 12.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Wits and Wagers 8.00 9.8 18-1
9 9 Stay Lost 5.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 No Guilt 12.00 10.3 19-1
2 2 Two Minute Lick 20.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 Tivali 20.00 11.4 22-1
11 11 Sweet Sweetfantasy 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Welaka 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lord Grantham 15.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Joking Way 2.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Victory Formation 1.80 3.7 7-1
6 6 Lugan Knight 5.00 4 8-1
4 4 Two Eagles River 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Coffee Caliente 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Gold Luck 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Poblano 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Market Profile 6.00 1.9 4-1
11 11 Vahva 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Patty Van Twinkle 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Souper Explosive 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Tough Legacy 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Bru Na Boinne 5.00 7 13-1
1 1 Dear Lady 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Okay Fine 8.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Medaglia Forever 12.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Lady Irene 10.00 10.5 20-1
3 3 Luna Moth 20.00 10.8 20-1
13 13 Ladan 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Kiss It Goodbye 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Klassy Bridgette 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Iguazu Falls 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Escapologist 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Spielman 3.50 2.7 5-1
10 10 Endpoint 4.50 4.1 8-1
11 11 Spoiler 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Face Value 10.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Macho Villa 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Coal Boss 20.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Hard to Come By 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Crepe Yarns 20.00 8 15-1
7 7 Point Proven 5.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Level Up 15.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Regimental 15.00 12.6 24-1
14 14 Parkway 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gordy’s Label 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 First Class Harlow 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Rocket and Roll 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Good Heart 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Deer District 2.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Worthington 3.00 6 11-1
7 7 B Minor 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Mendel’s Secret 5.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Donegal Factor 8.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Counterspy 20.00 9.3 18-1
2 2 Curlins Incharge 12.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Suitable 20.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Scooteranddabigman 20.00 10.2 19-1
11 11 Nitroman 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Aristocracy 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Fern Creek S.) – Fern Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Baytown Lovely 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 Key of Life 1.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Twirled 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Red Carpet Ready 3.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 The Great Maybe 4.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Tell Me When 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mo’s Treasure 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hit Show 3.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Traffic Master 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Rocket Can 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Confidence Game 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Tres Soles 5.00 4 8-1
10 10 Ten Days Later 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Highway Robber 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Must Be the Money 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Raise Cain 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Take the Charge 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Ed Brown S.) – Ed Brown S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Top Recruit 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Frosted Departure 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Powerful 2.50 5 9-1
2 2 Bourbon Bash 5.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Accident 30.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Mounsieur Coco 6.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Mr Bob 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Golden Rod S.) – Golden Rod S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Hoosier Philly 0 0-1
4 4 Hoosier Philly 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Knockyoursocksoff 12.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 T Max 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 American Rockette 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Pretty Mischievous 2.50 4.2 8-1
10 10 Defining Purpose 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Take Charge Briana 15.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Pure Pauline 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Mustang Lady 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Black Forest 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Kentucky Jockey Club S.) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Instant Coffee 0 0-1
1 1 Curly Jack 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Red Route One 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Gigante 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Instant Coffee 2.50 5.5 10-1
9 9 Cyclone Mischief 8.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Denington 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Hayes Strike 10.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Freedom Trail 6.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Western Ghent 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Backside Buzz 8.00 1 2-1
13 13 Hallow Point 6.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 King d’Oro 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Midnight Pranks 10.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Mobster 5.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Global Pride 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Talladega 3.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Gun Pilot 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Pinfire 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Itzos 4.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Winger 10.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 All About Croge 30.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Mr Midway 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.