Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 1, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Solid Country Gold 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Keepcalmcarryon 1.80 2.6 5-1
5 5 Creme de Bali 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 He’s Got This 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Uncle Nick 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Guanajuato 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Pineapple Alley 2.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Mean American 2.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Alexaplayborntorun 4.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Debs Prayer 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Maggie’s Return 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Star Syzygy 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 J B Gray 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Chipeee 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Hoosier 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Starport 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Spreading Rumors 6.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Owen the Ice Man 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 India Ink 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Rooster Run 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Da Gold Room 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Blushinstreetdevil 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Crafty Heat 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Max Pandowdy 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 G’s Squeeze 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Rue Lala 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Royal O’Haigain 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Beleout 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Special Connection 3.50 5.8 11-1
2 2 Visionofwildtimes 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fiesty Fist 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Forty Three 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Grunt 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Fiery Playboy 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Blue Cheese 3.00 4 8-1
3 3 Home Visit 5.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Touchdown Joe 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Quarter Rat 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
The Alys Look 0 0-1
7 8 Mo Bills 3.50 1 2-1
1 3 The Alys Look 3.00 2.4 5-1
8 9 Windy Bay 8.00 3 6-1
1A 7 Kate’s Concerto 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Mo Shiro 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Nomadic Pride 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 10 Flowerdew 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 1 Peterpam 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 2 Huntleigh 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Betyar Azets 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Two B 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Easy Runner 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Woods N Water 3.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Mr Elvin 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Helaire 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Magic Lightning 10.00 4 8-1
8 8 Bernie Special 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Ourquickdrawmcgraw 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Ole Stud Muffin 12.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.