Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 3, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bootsie’s Galaxy 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Perfect Perigee 5.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Crusader Express 6.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Charli Michael 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Knockalittlelouder 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Wicked Alex 6.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Donna’s Court 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Thunk 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jared the Warrior 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Midnight Dreaming 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Giannis 2.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Holy Prince 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Winning Dance 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Crossing Iris 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Populist 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Pomeroy Haze 4.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Hug the Munny 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Princess Stella (IRE) 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Optimal Courage 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 Bootdaddy Justice 2.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 Tiz Light the Way 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Swizzlecity 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Twelve Stars 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 More Romance 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Jibe 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Xcaret 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Candy’s Parade 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Marina’s Gold 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sweet Slew 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Keep Left 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Stop the Madness 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 My Lady Luna 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Corona Del Mar 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Champleve 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Roll Gypsy Roll 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Khozy Tap 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Release McCraken 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Toddchero 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Distorted Pro 2.50 3 6-1
7 7 Top Note 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Bello Creedo 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Gallant Buck 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Runtoday 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tapit Shoes 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Gem Collection 10.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 More Than Five 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Natural Red 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Gordy’s Label 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Dual Monarchy 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Bayou Chrome 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Ice Time 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Z Z’s Prince 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Blanton 15.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Fight’n Ready 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Pan Zareta S.) – Pan Zareta S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Oeuvre 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Elle’s Town 12.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Perfect Happiness 8.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 New Boss 10.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Cashable 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Portilla 4.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Touch of Class 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Minute Waltz 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Onamargaritaday 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ulikeapples 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Medley 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Serape 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Mishpachah 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Lady Churchill 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Miss Kennedy 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 My Friend Mr. Jim 10.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Vale Male 12.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Iron Banner 12.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Shelli’s Angel 20.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Ours and Theirs 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.