Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 4, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Crafty Princess 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Kaitlyn’s Court 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 I Dont Know Either 4.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Lake Runner 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Star’s Dream 10.00 2 4-1
5 5 Meg and Clair 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Allstar Magic 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Spectacular Izzy 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bucky Bik Coin 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Rammer Jammer 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Cat Five 4.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Kislovodsk 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 Summer Lover 5.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Curlin Edges 8.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Norwood 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Box of Pictures 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Maestria 4.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Ironit 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 2 Wendy Wilecat 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Pat Hand Girl 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Elsie Girl 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Sumitup 3.00 SCRATCH
1A 8 Charlie’s Peak 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mischief’s Machine 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Drilling Report 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Classic King 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Haleys Sailor 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Vim and Vigor 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Silent Tap 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Promise of Hope 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mor Lively 1.60 1.6 3-1
4 4 It Takes Heart 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Thisonesforlove 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Ruby Foo 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Stiff Drink 4.00 1 2-1
1A 4 Cajun Connection 4.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Like This 8.00 1.7 3-1
8 9 Anders Smile 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 5 American Dollars 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Regal Kingdom 6.00 4.2 8-1
7 8 Frenchy Departed 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Kajun Karma 4.50 SCRATCH
6 7 Righteous Freedom 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Gravy Hound 3.50 1 2-1
2 1 Constitutional Law 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 9 Twirling Roses 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 5 Sutherland 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 7 Marital Bliss 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 2 Wise Anchor 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 6 Apache Tears 8.00 5.2 10-1
1A 3 Sunrise Kitten 8.00 SCRATCH
3 4 Nelson Avenue 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Commercial Flash 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Point of Victory 3.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 New Year’s Party 10.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 For Real Alice 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Kick N Kiss 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Theboyzgalaxy 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Custom for Carlita 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Gilded Apple 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Sassy Mallory 20.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 Peaceful Vision 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Glitter Time 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Halfglamorous 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Moment to Dream 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.