Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 4, 2022
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Crafty Princess | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kaitlyn’s Court | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I Dont Know Either | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lake Runner | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Star’s Dream | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meg and Clair | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Allstar Magic | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spectacular Izzy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bucky Bik Coin | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rammer Jammer | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cat Five | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kislovodsk | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Lover | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Curlin Edges | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Norwood | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Box of Pictures | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maestria | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ironit | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Wendy Wilecat | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pat Hand Girl | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elsie Girl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sumitup | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Charlie’s Peak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mischief’s Machine | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drilling Report | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Classic King | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Haleys Sailor | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vim and Vigor | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silent Tap | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Promise of Hope | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mor Lively | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | It Takes Heart | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thisonesforlove | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ruby Foo | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Stiff Drink | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Cajun Connection | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Like This | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Anders Smile | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | American Dollars | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Regal Kingdom | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Frenchy Departed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Kajun Karma | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 7 | Righteous Freedom | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Gravy Hound | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Constitutional Law | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Twirling Roses | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Sutherland | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Marital Bliss | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Wise Anchor | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Apache Tears | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Sunrise Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 4 | Nelson Avenue | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Commercial Flash | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Point of Victory | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New Year’s Party | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | For Real Alice | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kick N Kiss | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Theboyzgalaxy | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Custom for Carlita | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Gilded Apple | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sassy Mallory | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Peaceful Vision | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Glitter Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Halfglamorous | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moment to Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.