Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 11, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Into Happiness 0 0-1
1 1 Into Happiness 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Charging Lady 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Geometrique 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Dolce Sera 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Mischief Motion 5.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Ughrouda 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bella Michelle 0 0-1
5 5 Cookie Crumbs 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Bella Michelle 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 In Good Trouble 6.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Bank Buster 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Indyan Penny 10.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Hypnocurrency 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Hoochie Coo 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Win for Gold 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Jake Rocks 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Will E Sutton 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Eddie the Great 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Alite 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Charger 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Easy to Bless 3.50 1 2-1
1 2 Its Cold in Dehere 2.00 4.4 8-1
7 8 Short Summer Dress 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Honey Money 8.00 4.8 9-1
1A 5 Customerexperience 2.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Alarm Clock 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 7 Aegean Sea 15.00 6.6 13-1
2 1 Spooky Road 1.80 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Spin a Yarn 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ribot’s Valentine 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Byhubbyhellomoney 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Captainsdaughter 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Khali Magic 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Pretty Clever 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Happy Sophia 3.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Curly Girl 20.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Vallelujah 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Color Commish 0 0-1
7 7 Disarmed 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Fire King 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Max Foster 4.50 2.2 4-1
10 10 Color Commish 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 The Catillac Kid 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Lieutenant Sam 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Brad’s Bet 30.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Zuccarace 12.00 10.5 20-1
9 9 Saratoga Strong 8.00 10.7 20-1
2 2 Milagroso 15.00 10.8 20-1
6 6 In My Shadow 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rough Sea 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 No Burn 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Outlier 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Locally Owned 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 No Salt 3.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Healing 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Amatteroftime 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Therisastormbrewin 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Famished 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Uno 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zircon 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 On the Hill 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Today’s Flavor 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Warriors Revenge 4.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 My Last Mission 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Safalow’s Mission 10.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 The Institute 4.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Constant Knight 30.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Taco Bean 20.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 Open Til Midnight 30.00 9.8 19-1
9 9 Persistent Danger 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chief Engineer 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Our Son Jake 6.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Patrick the Great 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Dancing With Rico 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Reunion Tour 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Eight and Sand 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Hereby 6.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Escape Mission 8.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Tiza Brown 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 Uncle Bruce 30.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Red Jet 30.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Itsalittlebitfunny 8.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.