Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 15, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Keen Lady 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Surrey 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Jackie Flash 3.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 La Chapeau 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Duxonthepond 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Latte Dolce 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Caviar Resolution 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Thinkitasadonation 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Total Discretion 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Fibrillator 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Zeerock 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Shaniah 0 0-1
2 2 Donya Know It 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 H. T. Xena 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Shaniah 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Proud Valentine 4.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Ma Cherie 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Miss G G 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sermononthemount 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Rockdale 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Cap Rock Miner 4.00 3 6-1
9 9 Feeling Dangerous 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 The Gray Blur 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 East Lex 15.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 My Guitar 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 When’s Tee Time 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tio Blas 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Dyn O Mite 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bankroll 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gold Punch 6.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Tambourine Star 4.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Courtman 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Chrompton 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Hard Four 5.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 George Allen 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Graded Vision 4.50 7.4 14-1
9 9 Coffee County 8.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Helaire 8.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Custom Blue Grass 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Schnell 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bron and Brow 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Half Again 5.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 No Pedigree 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Binding Agreement 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Hooray Austin 5.00 5 10-1
9 9 Wise Anchor 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Coach Kenny 12.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Zion 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Hughes Clues 3.50 1 2-1
8 10 My Aunt Snookie 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Blame Day 6.00 2.9 5-1
2B 5 She’s Jersey Tuff 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Catherine Blaze 20.00 3.7 7-1
6 7 Corner Kick 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Munndiva 12.00 4.6 9-1
1A 9 Varmlander 6.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 White Chocolate 3.50 7.5 14-1
5 6 Charriere 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 B B Gun Bullseye 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bad Gal Riri 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Beanie 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Good Girl Shorty 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 I’d Be Rich 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Just Another Win 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Sheeza Priority 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Hot Patootie 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Sadie’s Port 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 My Royal Princess 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Bless d’South 8.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.