Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 16, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Takeover Time 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Onecallthatsall 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Tazzher 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 One Mo to Go 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Griddy Up Girl 3.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Reina Aces 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Quinn Ella 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Forbidden Fruit 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Seriously Sassy 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Princess Stella (IRE) 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Melody Rose 3.00 6 11-1
2 2 Cave Creek 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Reverent 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dignified N Krafty 5.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Brother Jeff 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Autumn’s So Flashy 4.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 All Out War 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Ondatrackpimpernel 3.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Mine Your Biz 8.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Punchie 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Aaron’s Spirit 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Gallant Buck 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Back Beat 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Top Note 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Special Operator 5.00 5 9-1
4 4 Moro Mafia 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mo Vodka 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dialed a Dame 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Pleasant Vision 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Ogre’s Lion King 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Costello’s Kitten 4.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Exclaim 4.50 4.5 9-1
3 3 Mad Adam 6.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Mosh Pit 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Natural Harbor 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 De Saix 10.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Speed Warning 5.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Midnight Pranks 12.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Desert Duke 5.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Pinfire 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Silver Bull 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Golden Nugget 6.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Little Steven 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Mo Hope 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Prince Cosmo 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hidden Connection 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Purrfect 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Flatter Me Silly 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Microcap 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Xtrema 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Russian Mafia 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 It’sfiftyshadetime 6.00 5 9-1
9 9 Hannah’s Haven 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Dial Ten for G 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Ourquickdrawmcgraw 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Juju Nineteen 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Western Star 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Half a Doodle 8.00 3.9 7-1
1A 12 Stealing Apriority 3.50 4.2 8-1
4 3 Callen Feels Good 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Heartthrob Halo 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 K T’s Jilted Groom 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 6 Charlie’s Town 3.50 6.3 12-1
2 1 Rock Star Alex 12.00 6.4 12-1
6 5 Magnolia Ridge 8.00 8.8 17-1
5 4 Bernie Special 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.