Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 17, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 North Pole 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Union Lights 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Tiger Town Boy 1.80 4.6 9-1
4 4 Papi On Ice 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Sean the Hammer 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Lefty’s War 15.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Growth Mindset 8.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Grand Again 30.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Tiza Brown 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Catchyasoon 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Digital Future 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 After Five 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Leddy 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Scilly Cay 2.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bezos 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Handsome Cat 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Bay Ridge S.) – Bay Ridge S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Venti Valentine 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Let Her Inspire U 0.80 2.5 5-1
1 1 Spungie 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mashnee Girl 10.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Know It All Audrey 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Fight On Lucy 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Saint Eros Girl 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 True Empress 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Devilly 12.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Mia Bea Star 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Charley Rude 2.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Alpine Queen 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Surcharge 8.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Laughter 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sheriff Bianco 0 0-1
6 6 Sheriff Bianco 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Prisoner 12.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Twelth Man 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 King Angelo 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Jester’s Song 15.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Vidal 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mauritius 8.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Neuro 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Summer Cause 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tapit Trice 2.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 My Imagination 20.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Winning Connection 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Slip Mahoney 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Good Rapport 15.00 5 9-1
9 9 Mercante 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Abstract 10.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Keltic Knight 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Assertive Attitude 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Les Bon Temps 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Midtown Lights 3.50 7.1 13-1
10 10 Fema Funds 10.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Dream On Cara 30.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Clover Street 12.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Sweet Liberty 15.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Little Linzee 20.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Small Pebbles 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Central Speed 12.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Forces Sweetheart 4.50 9.6 18-1
5 5 Bustin Hot 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Alex M. Robb S.) – Alex M. Robb S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Barese 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Somelikeithotbrown 5.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Sea Foam 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Market Alert 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Perfect Munnings 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Wudda U Think Now 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Dr. Blute 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Three Jokers 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Vacation Dance 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Jackson Heights 3.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 General Banker 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Lifetime of Chance 6.00 6 11-1
2 2 Bustino Santino 5.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Ramblin’ Wreck 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Tater and Tot 20.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Zapruder 10.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Playingwithmatches 20.00 8 15-1
10 10 Laurel Valley 8.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Incantation 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 5 M. C. Double R 3.00 1 2-1
4 3 Joyful Ghost 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 7 Camm’ Duke 12.00 3.5 7-1
9 10 Somama Beach 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 4 Hot Rod Lincoln 3.00 5.4 10-1
7 8 Two Chuckles 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 6 Saratoga Banker 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 1 Liotta 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 2 Chasin’ You 6.00 6.9 13-1
8 9 Weyhill Farm Rd. 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.