Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 17, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Honeysuckledelight 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Seriously Sam 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 The Calling Stone 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Rememberin Ronald 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Custom Design 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Avie J 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Foolish Dreams 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Big Scully 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Lilrascalman 4.00 5 9-1
7 7 Totally Addicted 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Inthealy 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 My Heavy Son 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Oak Hill Solution 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 6 Like Mike 1.80 1 2-1
5 4 Unanimously 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 3 War Count 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 5 Greeley Went West 3.50 2.6 5-1
1A 7 Run Rocket 1.80 2.8 5-1
2 1 Standing Man 8.00 3 6-1
3 2 Wish Upon a Star 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lightning Struck 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Boyfriend Material 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Bootdaddy Justice 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Classic King 2.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Candy Prince 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Special Pryce 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Golden Pegasus 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Ironman Richie 6.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Leroy Jenkins 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Stockpiler 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Big Country 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Dude Drop Kid 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Masquerade Ball 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Moment 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Sierra Hotel 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Mau Mau 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Super Wise 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Trivista 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Kidyounot 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Whacudposblygowrng 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dyn O Mite 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mischievous Diane 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Ready for Change 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tizplenty 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Champagne Affair 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Rookery 4.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Repealing 1.60 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Super Design 12.00 1 2-1
3 2 Zozos 1.20 1.9 4-1
7 6 Portos 4.50 4.1 8-1
12 12 Treasury 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 American Hero 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Direct Order 15.00 8.6 16-1
1 7 My Romeo Lima 20.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 New Year Surprise 50.00 10.2 19-1
4 3 My Bariley 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Clarestown 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Pipes and Drums 10.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Uninvited Guest 20.00 SCRATCH
5 4 First Glimpse 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Chipeee 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Lifeasweknowit 6.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Starport 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Spreading Rumors 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Star Ready 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 King Chrome 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Came Out Kickin 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Ricky Right 4.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.