Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Heart That Binds 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Calaja 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Isolation 3.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Bellamy Cay 3.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Explosively Hot 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 My Little Jen 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Lady Churchill 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bonus Appreciation 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Aniclude 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Uncle Nick 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Co Conspirator 3.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Kidyounot 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Magazine Street 3.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Mad Adam 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chardonnay 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Richebourg 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Hannah’s Haven 2.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Lady Jeopardy 4.50 4 8-1
4 4 She a Hot Mess 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gigablast 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Rue Lala 4.00 3 6-1
8 8 Sumitup 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Noneya 4.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Wupkar 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Viola Star 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Flashyboy’s Lilsis 20.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Hei Hei Custivity 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Emerald Forest 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Devil’s Tower 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 All West 2.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Prado’s Priority 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Crime Spree 4.50 5 9-1
1 1 Gormleys Got Game 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Allnight Moonlight 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Slick and Fast 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 8 Cajun Crazy 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 I Don’t Venmo 3.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Cajun Connection 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Main Dude 15.00 4.5 9-1
1A 6 Anders Smile 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 7 Up N Gone 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 9 Inspector Ed 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Martinized 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Forty Three 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Battle of Will 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Blue Cheese 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Wicked Rose 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Guitartuition Plzz 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Woods N Water 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Touchdown Joe 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Solidarity 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Layla’s Song 12.00 3 6-1
1 1 Super Cool Storm 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Mytown Myrules 3.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Surrey 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Spiritcatcher 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 9 Perfection Saver 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Most Empressive 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tiana’s Star (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 12 Mr. Production 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Quest for Avette 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Gracida 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 C’Mon Ve 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Reece’s Priority 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Lt. Bonura 6.00 6 11-1
8 9 Crusader Express 12.00 6 11-1
10 11 Mr. Priority 10.00 7.8 15-1
1A 8 Counterfeit 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Loveu and Proudofu 50.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Perfect Perigee 20.00 SCRATCH
9 10 No Pedigree 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.