Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, January 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bet On Bourbon 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Charlie’s Peak 12.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Commercial Flash 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Enduring Peace 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Candy’s Pride 3.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Kasen’s Sister 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Gilded Apple 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 American Rebel 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Maria Gone Wild 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 She’s Jersey Tuff 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Little Fairy 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Keep Left 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Higher Note 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Corona Del Mar 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Sweetasbaily 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 One More Laugh 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Chrome Racer 3.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Bali Dove (FR) 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 War Ensign 6.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Carnelian 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Jackie Flash 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Terranova 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Duxonthepond 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Champagne Affair 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Non Violence 2.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Fine Cotton 4.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Judy’s Way 4.50 5.4 10-1
3 3 Royal Take Charge 3.00 5.6 10-1
6 6 Zing 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 G’s Squeeze 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Basalt Street 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 She’s Gone d’Wild 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Half Koo Koo 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Lake Marie 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Box of Pictures 4.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ironit 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Special Connection 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Uphold the Law 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Higher Standard 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Omaha Red 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Hunter John 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Awe Shackle 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Broken Rib 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Russian Tank 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Audaciousness 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Best Performer 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 La Perla Nera 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Don’t Go Changing 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Girl Named Charlie 4.50 6.9 13-1
3 3 Paint Me Perfect 5.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Golden Star 6.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Just Say So 8.00 11.6 22-1
13 13 Desert Tempest 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Flowerdew 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Soultitlesready 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Cerchi 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Acting 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Boltoro 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cushee 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Risktaker 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Landry and Lucas 12.00 3 6-1
1 1 Lit a Shuck 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Dignified N Krafty 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Oak Hill Mo 6.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Iron Fortune 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Mr. Cromwell 3.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Party Little Boy 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Mine Your Biz 20.00 8 15-1
9 9 Wild Fist 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.