Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cairo Sugar 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Two Redheads 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Dream On Cara 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 The Splendid One 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Lavon 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Berning Honor 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 La Conquistadora 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Know It All Audrey 0.60 1 2-1
3 3 Bustin Bay 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Caramocha 8.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Mia Bea Star 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Vallarand 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Norgay 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Old Point 1.80 2.5 5-1
3 3 Proven Hope 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Tiger Town Boy 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Grand Again 30.00 5 9-1
5 5 Papi On Ice 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Golden Purchase 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Red Jet 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Winning Connection 2.00 1 2-1
7 8 Please Baby 1.80 1.5 3-1
4 4 Nieuwendyk 4.00 3 6-1
1 2 Steady Progress 10.00 4 8-1
6 7 Practicallymine 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Disturbed 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Bear’s Correct 30.00 6.8 13-1
1A 6 Sway’sinmydna 10.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Sixwillberich 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Microsecond 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Masked Marauder 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Daddy Knows 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Breaking Stones 15.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Double Shot 8.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Runningwscissors 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Quickflash 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Gandy Dancing 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 F F Rocket 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Winning Drive 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Mount Travers 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Magnificent Chrome 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Striking Speed 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Caerus 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Ragtime Blues 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Saint Tapit 4.00 1 2-1
3 4 Nuclear Option 12.00 3.9 7-1
1A 2 Gagetown 8.00 4 7-1
9 10 Hero Tiger 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 3 Dr Ardito 2.50 5 9-1
1 1 Going to the Lead 8.00 5 10-1
6 7 Nabokov 3.00 5.1 10-1
7 8 Glory Road 8.00 SCRATCH
5 6 American Gentleman 20.00 SCRATCH
4 5 Gulfstream Way 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Central Pride 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lem Me Drink 8.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Refuah 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Callaloo 2.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Valentino’s Here 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Red D G P 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Quackenbush 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Olympic Dreams 12.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.