Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honorary Guest 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Fibrillator 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Magical Stardust 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Meg and Clair 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Lake Runner 4.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Happy Sails 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cousin Larry 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Keepcalmcarryon 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Master Game 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Rewire 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Cartier Cat 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Soul Coaxing 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Ottothelegend 3.00 1 2-1
2 1 Bootdaddy Justice 8.00 1.5 3-1
6 5 Duke of Carthania 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Smokey Harbor 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Sierra Hotel 8.00 3 6-1
1A 9 Palatial Times 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 7 Plemmonston 15.00 SCRATCH
1 8 Direct Order 4.50 SCRATCH
7 6 Mau Mau 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Soft Pants 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Boxster 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Hunter’s Drive 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Z Z’s Prince 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Minnesota Moon 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Wolf Hunter 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Cote d’Ivoire 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nosilverspoonshere 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Lead Me 4.50 3 6-1
6 6 Unified Love 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Rockett Magic 20.00 5 10-1
3 3 Kittenofthe Court 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Classical Magnolia 5.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Cadillac Ridge 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mo Bling 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ain’t Broke 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lady Emily 8.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Waywardness 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Lolloping 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Free Love 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Fordland 10.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Livy B 10.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Kathaan 2.50 8.1 15-1
11 11 Hat Tip 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Money Well Spent 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Colonel Aby B 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Girl’s On Fire 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Madam Henny 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 My Alibi 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Marina’s Gold 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Catwings 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Please Be Kind 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Parker Eva 4.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 I Am Up 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Rose Palace 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Perfection Saver 6.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Cheeky 8.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Lady Huxley 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shades of Truth 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 A. K. A. Grams 5.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Peaceful Vision 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 New Year’s Party 8.00 4 7-1
10 10 Halfglamorous 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 For Real Alice 4.50 5 9-1
4 4 Point of Victory 10.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Theboyzgalaxy 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Storied Trip 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Stella’s Surprise 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Blondie Lox Babe 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Silk Shaker 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.