Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 5, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
1 Duxonthepond 4.00 2.74 6.00 3.20 2.80
4 Senate Dance 4.00 1.28 3.80 3.20
3 Two Hands Full 12.00 7.00 6.20

$1.00 Exacta (1-4) Pays $9.70
$0.50 Trifecta (1-4-3) Pays $32.50
$0.10 Superfecta (1-4-3-6) Pays $29.35


RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
5 Beautifulandwild 6.00 2.36 7.20 4.60 3.40
3 Pat Hand Girl 4.50 3.05 8.60 5.80
6 Zeerock 8.00 8.00 4.40

$1.00 Exacta (5-3) Pays $25.60
$0.50 Trifecta (5-3-6) Pays $82.55
$0.10 Superfecta (5-3-6-4) Pays $86.86


RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
2 Maestria 1.40 1.00 2.60 2.20 2.10
1 La Feme Jolie 6.00 5.76 10.40 5.20
5 Custom Design 6.00 7.00 4.40

$1.00 Exacta (2-1) Pays $8.80
$0.50 Trifecta (2-1-5) Pays $51.15
$0.10 Superfecta (2-1-5-3) Pays $53.56


RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 Honeysuckledelight 4.00 1.89 23.20 7.60 4.20
3 Visionista 4.50 1.22 4.40 3.00
7 Two Jet 4.50 3.17 3.60

$1.00 Exacta (4-3) Pays $48.10
$0.50 Trifecta (4-3-7) Pays $88.05
$0.10 Superfecta (4-3-7-1) Pays $33.47


RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 El Deal Me Aces 2.50 1.12 4.00 2.80 2.20
2 Calicoco 3.50 1.75 4.80 2.80
3 Geaux Sugar 2.00 1.00 2.40

$1.00 Exacta (4-2) Pays $7.20
$0.50 Trifecta (4-2-3) Pays $7.60
$0.10 Superfecta (4-2-3-6) Pays $7.02


RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
7 Demolition Duke 2.50 1.61 13.60 6.20 4.00
3 Bo Cruz 6.00 4.53 4.20 3.00
5 Charging 3.00 1.00 3.20

$1.00 Exacta (7-3) Pays $28.80
$0.50 Trifecta (7-3-5) Pays $42.85
$0.10 Superfecta (7-3-5-4) Pays $96.25


RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
7 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 8.00 7.92 16.20 8.60 4.00
1 Flowerdew 8.00 11.42 16.60 6.60
3 Mo Shiro 4.00 2.96 2.80

$1.00 Exacta (7-1) Pays $112.10
$0.50 Trifecta (7-1-3) Pays $201.70
$0.10 Superfecta (7-1-3-8) Pays $284.55


RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
7 Mr. Cromwell 4.00 2.68 9.00 3.80 3.40
1 Syvestar 8.00 6.39 8.40 5.80
4 Inspector Ed 5.00 3.33 5.80

$1.00 Exacta (7-1) Pays $41.30
$0.50 Trifecta (7-1-4) Pays $119.90
$0.10 Superfecta (7-1-4-8) Pays $77.91


Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.