Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
5 One More Laugh 1.60 1.00 2.80 2.40 2.10
3 Chrome Racer 3.00 1.81 2.20 2.10
2 She’s My Louie V. 4.00 2.30 2.40

$1.00 Exacta (5-3) Pays $2.50
$0.50 Trifecta (5-3-2) Pays $3.35
$0.10 Superfecta (5-3-2-1) Pays $0.92


RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
1 Mo Bling 3.00 1.00 4.20 3.00 2.40
2 Anita’s Vision 4.00 3.12 4.00 3.00
4 Kittenofthe Court 5.00 4.60 3.40

$1.00 Exacta (1-2) Pays $6.00
$0.50 Trifecta (1-2-4) Pays $13.65
$0.10 Superfecta (1-2-4-5) Pays $11.13


RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
5 Trafalgar 2.00 2.08 7.60 3.80 2.10
1 Uninvited Guest 8.00 2.56 3.80 2.10
3 Open Road 0.40 1.00 2.10

$1.00 Exacta (5-1) Pays $11.50
$0.50 Trifecta (5-1-3) Pays $5.30
$0.10 Superfecta (5-1-3-2) Pays $2.71


RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
6 Mau Mau 3.50 2.40 15.60 6.40 3.80
2 Bootdaddy Justice 6.00 1.57 4.60 3.60
1 Smokey Harbor 5.00 1.94 3.20

$1.00 Exacta (6-2) Pays $32.30
$0.50 Trifecta (6-2-1) Pays $52.05
$0.10 Superfecta (6-2-1-3) Pays $30.91


RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
7 Gold Punch 4.00 1.37 6.20 3.20 2.60
6 Two B 6.00 3.65 10.20 5.80
3 Kingofbrokenhearts 2.50 1.00 2.60

$1.00 Exacta (7-6) Pays $20.60
$0.50 Trifecta (7-6-3) Pays $26.15
$0.10 Superfecta (7-6-3-5) Pays $10.17


RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
2 Supremely 4.00 2.24 10.80 4.80 3.20
8 Tim Tal 3.50 1.63 4.40 3.60
5 Overanalytical 5.00 2.23 3.60

$1.00 Exacta (2-8) Pays $17.50
$0.50 Trifecta (2-8-5) Pays $40.75
$0.10 Superfecta (2-8-5-3) Pays $17.81


RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
7 Trobairitz 4.50 1.00 2.20 2.10 0.00
4 Lady Jeopardy 20.00 5.32 2.40 0.00
8 Hannah’s Haven 20.00 7.59 0.00

$1.00 Exacta (7-4) Pays $1.80
$0.50 Trifecta (Refund) Pays $1.00
$0.10 Superfecta (Refund) Pays $1.00


RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
10 Treasury 3.00 1.32 7.20 4.40 3.20
8 American Hero 12.00 4.64 18.60 7.80
7 Omaha Red 6.00 1.00 3.80

$1.00 Exacta (10-8) Pays $65.80
$0.50 Trifecta (10-8-7) Pays $154.20
$0.10 Superfecta (10-8-7-3) Pays $94.01


RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 Rock Star Alex 15.00 5.35 23.40 8.80 6.60
9 Sneaky Allie Kat 12.00 6.56 17.40 7.80
1 Stone Alliance 5.00 3.11 4.20

$1.00 Exacta (4-9) Pays $263.70
$0.50 Trifecta (4-9-1) Pays $847.20
$0.10 Superfecta (4-9-1-5) Pays $584.92


Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.