Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sounds Spooky 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Stormandy 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Steady Progress 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Disturbed 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 That’s My Business 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Awesome Weapon 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Blue Paynt 2.50 1 2-1
2 1 Vallarand 3.50 1.7 3-1
1A 5 Viradia 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 3 Indian Bella 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 6 Mariah’s Fortune 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 8 Its Cold in Dehere 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Gringotts 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 7 Prairie Fire 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Spirit of St Louis 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Refuah 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Eight and Sand 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Central Pride 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Olympic Dreams 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Squid Gamer 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Tie Breaker 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Valentino’s Here 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Complete Agenda 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Doctor Love 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Blu Grotto 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Breadman 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Fromanothamutha 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Irish Exit 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Hang Tight 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fabulously Funny 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Spelterini 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Swanson Lake 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Balentina 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Risk Free 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Tap It Up 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Wonder Girl 15.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 My Girl Jal 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Excellent Timing 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Majority Partner 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Scilly Cay 4.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Writer’s Regret 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Whittington Park 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Listentoyourheart 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Durkin’s Call 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Masked Marauder 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Downtown Mischief 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Midtown Lights 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Luna Loca 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Security Code 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Vax 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Queens Masterpiece 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Pretty Miss Keens 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Lockbox 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 My Sweet Khaile 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bad Connection 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Flattering Gal 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Fuligni 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Wine Goddess 6.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Mrs Bell 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 War Museum 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Follow the Fed 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Scoreboard Lily 12.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Maize Loved Laffy 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Madame Rose 20.00 12 23-1
2 2 Delightful Rita 20.00 12 23-1
4 4 My Inner Voice 20.00 12 23-1
Bad Connection 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.