Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Reina Aces 5.00 1 2-1
2B 9 Madison’s Screen 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 2 Pickin Ana Grinnin 4.50 1.9 4-1
1A 8 Highly Wicked 3.50 2 4-1
2 7 Zipping Molly 4.00 3 6-1
8 10 Midnight Flame 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Tazzher 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Re Re’s Rainbow 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 6 Bless d’South 12.00 7 13-1
5 4 Sangiovese 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Creative Strategy 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Brilliant Colors 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Notion 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Butler Cabin 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Tizzy Tantrum 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Rockall 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Letstakeitoutside 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gtuone Buck 4.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 War Trolley 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Bankroll 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Lifeasweknowit 6.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Blue Ridge Red 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Reverent 8.00 7 13-1
7 7 Magic Lightning 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Leroy Jenkins 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Top Note 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Ronithelimodriver 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Whiskey Gent 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Mosh Pit 4.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bosshog Them Dukes 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Costello’s Kitten 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Exclaim 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gallant Buck 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Special Operator 3.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Back Beat 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Blackteca 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Bello Creedo 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Mongolian Bee 4.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 Midnight Dreaming 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Medley 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Vale Male 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Mishpachah 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Box of Pictures 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Visionofwildtimes 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Blessed Anna 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Averi Ever After 15.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Gator Proud 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Forest Chimes 3.50 1 2-1
6 5 Hayunevano 4.50 1.5 3-1
1A 10 Bru Na Boinne 5.00 2 4-1
3 1 Charriere 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 2 Oath of Allegiance 5.00 4.5 8-1
7 6 Huntleigh 5.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Sweet Alyssa 6.00 5.8 11-1
2 8 Ghostly Girl 8.00 7.2 14-1
4 3 Southlawn 8.00 8 15-1
2B 9 Savage Darling 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Heza Sexy Zong 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Check Me Out 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Mi Solution 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Scooteria 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Sea of Light 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Party Little Boy 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Golden Confusion 10.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Ondatrackpimpernel 20.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.