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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Avant 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Don’t Tell Amy 3.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Undoubtedly 3.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Promiseher America 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 La Grotte 5.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Welcometomyworld 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon’s Hope 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Got the Gold 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Cumberland Blues 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Can’t Beat Me 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Misbehaved 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 B C Glory Days 10.00 7 13-1
6 6 Ava K’s Boy 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Great Workout 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Warrior in Chief 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Royal Realm 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Jumpster 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Kumar 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Scotty 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 American Lincoln 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bustin Bay 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Girl of Tosconova 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Beautiful Karen 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Ok Honey 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Tara’s Talent 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Trade Secret 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Keen Dancer 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Awesome Native 2.00 1 2-1
1A 5 Full Moon Fever 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 2 Ouster 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 7 Overstep 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 6 Baldizar 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Hush of a Storm 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Whittington Park 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 8 The Cobbler 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Colloquy 2.00 1 2-1
7 6 Mandatory 3.00 1.6 3-1
1A 8 Major Spin 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 7 Achilles Heel 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Legendary Lore 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Batter Up Bud 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 9 Norgay 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 2 Open Til Midnight 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 3 Salute to America 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Tonal Impact 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Gasoline 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Win the Day 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Locally Owned 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Curlin’s Wisdom 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Naval Aviator 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Be Better 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Amatteroftime 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maddie May S.) – Maddie May S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Les Bon Temps 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 I’mhavingamoment 1.80 1.2 2-1
3 3 Sweetest Princess 4.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Starry Midnight 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Luna Loca 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Cairo Sugar 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Carbon 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Timed Out 3.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Run Devil 3.50 1.5 3-1
9 9 New York Supreme 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 April Antics 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Wicca Wisdom 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Bravo Regina 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Ricelle 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Super Duper Fly 30.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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