Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 20, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whats Up Sweets 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Mary Jack 3.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Izeonpoint 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Quinn Murphy 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Glance 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Havinfunyet 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Astern Banker 0.60 1 2-1
5 5 Spinstrawinto Gold 5.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Sailor’s Return 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Summer Lover 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Ice Vortex 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Uncle Jett 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Drewhustle 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Wicked Rose 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Play Mo 4.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Drilling Report 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Bind Faith 4.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Oak Hill Solution 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bellamy Cay 3.00 1 2-1
7 8 Strummer 4.00 2.1 4-1
6 7 Heart That Binds 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 4 For Real Alice 6.00 2.9 6-1
5 6 Explosively Hot 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 9 Point of Victory 6.00 4 8-1
4 5 Storied Trip 12.00 8.2 15-1
1A 3 My Little Jen 12.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Lake Runner 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Nosilverspoonshere 0.40 1 2-1
1 1 Special Connection 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 She’s Gone d’Wild 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Shelli’s Angel 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Viola Star 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Spellbinding 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Miss Kennedy 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lead Me 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Graceleadsushome 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Ms. Cajun Queen 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Deroutante 4.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Target Vision 6.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Pseudoscience 6.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Top Ten Duchess 5.00 6 11-1
3 3 Star Moment 5.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Track Queen 10.00 10 19-1
6 6 Classical Magnolia 10.00 10.3 19-1
5 5 Twirling Cat 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Golden Flash 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Rock With You 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Lucky Smile 3.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Rumble Ready 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Kislovodsk 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Boxster 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Justforspeightofit 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 I’m Your Captain 12.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Knot the One 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Frog Town 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Zaici 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Money Run 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Big Beemster 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Born Flawless 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Counterspy 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Machine Gun Man 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Tiz the Big One 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Isn’t It Time 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sheeza Priority 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Boston Millie 4.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Madison’s Screen 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Avie J 5.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Bani 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Hot Patootie 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 War Tourist 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Grace’s Vision 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Sum Charm 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.