Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 One Time Gem 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Sermononthemount 0.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Tio Blas 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Color Fast 4.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Landofthepharaohs 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 The Gray Blur 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Coach Kenny 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Zion 5.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Half Again 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Binding Agreement 4.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Gold Merritt 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Flashy Brew 4.50 6.1 12-1
7 7 Mucho Marvin 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gluckstadt 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Klimtomaniac 3.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Little Rocky 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Path to Success 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Afternoon Anejo 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Madison Luvs Duke 1.80 6.4 12-1
7 7 Summer Lover 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Not On Herb 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Two B 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 George Allen 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Iron in the Fire 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Helaire 5.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Drewmazing 6.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Holiday Diamond 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gigablast 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 G’s Squeeze 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Wupkar 4.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Lake Marie 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Galaxy Thirtysix 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Sumitup 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Golden Smiles 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Seriously Sam 10.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 La Feme Jolie 12.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 See Sassy Run 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Monjid 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Escapologist 4.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Caroom 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 McGolden 3.50 4.5 9-1
3 3 Solomon Vandy 4.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Ice Axe 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Mo Time At All 6.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Civilrightslegend 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Generous Lover 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Army Kitten 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Sandra D 6.00 2 4-1
8 8 Curlin Serenade 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 L J’s Emma 5.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Going the Distance 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 The Princess Says 8.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Miss Arlington 8.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Mucho Macho Girl 8.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Art Deco 12.00 7.9 15-1
L J’s Emma 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Ronalds Gatsby 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tsuris 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Tucker the Grump 8.00 2 4-1
9 9 Brother Jeff 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Infinitesimal 2.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mine Your Biz 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 St Pierre 20.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Eliezer 20.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Henny’s Turn 15.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Astrology Wonowon 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lit a Shuck 15.00 5.7 11-1
Infinitesimal 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.