Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Midnight Express 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 West Star 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Incantation 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Wonker Warrior 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Connect the Brocks 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Bear’s Correct 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Major Spin 1.40 1 2-1
1A 3 Ghostlyprince 1.40 1 2-1
6 7 Cheeky Tico 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 4 Jet Speed 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 6 John’s Protege 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Semper Fidelis 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 5 Moonshiningbright 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Opportunity Set 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Magical Ways 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 D Hopper 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Battuta d’Oro 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Predicted 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Carpe Capella 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stone Creator 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Tough Street 1.40 1.1 2-1
4 4 Bustin Bay 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Shinfull 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Caramocha 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Curly Girl 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 4 Fuligni 2.00 1 2-1
1 3 Caiarossa 2.00 1 2-1
3 2 Bustinroxy 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 7 Aeron Warrior 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 6 Magnolia Wind 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 9 Mrs Bell 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Follow the Fed 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 5 My Gorgeous 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 8 Four Quartz 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Howzyourcashflow 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Curlins Choir 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Grace and Charm 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Lockbox 5.00 4 8-1
4 4 Sicilian Grandma 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Will Be Famous 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Lady Shylock 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ruvies in Time 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Backed by Gold 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Khali Magic 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Diva Banker 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Early Edition 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Quality Stones 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Beautiful Karen 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Spin a Yarn 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Patria 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Quick Tempo 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Heir Port 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Jumpmaster 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 F F Rocket 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Zertz 8.00 4 8-1
10 10 Dee Bo 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Gandy Dancing 10.00 5 9-1
8 8 Striking Speed 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Midnightcharly 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Poppy’s Pride 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.