Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Creme de Bali 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Speedy G 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Afikoman 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Stealing Apriority 3.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Courageous Timmy 6.00 6 11-1
7 7 Blushinstreetdevil 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Genius 12.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Da Gold Room 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Herd Immunity 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Optimal Courage 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Bootsie’s Galaxy 2.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Galaxy Builder 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Two Dot 5.00 6 11-1
3 3 D Two 6.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Counter Offer 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Miltontown 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Frank the Mayor 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Drewzano 3.50 4.9 9-1
7 7 Complex System 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Knockalittlelouder 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Sun Squall 4.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Maintainance Matt 6.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Boyfriend Material 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Macho Beanie 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Guitar Riff 4.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Calibrachoa Kid 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Zinging Bayou 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Malaki Empire 5.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Madelyn’s Soldier 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Aztec Gem 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Ourperfectprince 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sweet Beauty 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Tattered Heart 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sweet Slew 4.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Aggie Doctor 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 The Rage of Art 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Plants and Birds 5.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Ma Cherie 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Calculated 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Martinized 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Forty Three 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Sunday Breeze 1.80 4.4 8-1
2 2 Home Visit 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Touchdown Joe 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Kingofbrokenhearts 10.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Jeffrow 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Ballinonabudjet 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Real City Speed 4.50 1.4 3-1
16 16 Unanimously 4.00 4 8-1
9 9 Cherokee Takeover 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Oh My Aching Arch 3.50 7.3 14-1
3 3 Coffee County 3.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Secret Vista 8.00 7.9 15-1
14 14 Deer Crossing 6.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Hudson’s Turn 6.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Bayou Jam 6.00 10.1 19-1
10 10 Oak Hill Solution 6.00 12.1 23-1
5 5 Jeb’s Lucky Eight 12.00 12.4 23-1
12 12 Lauri’s Wish 6.00 12.6 24-1
1 1 Guitartuition Plzz 8.00 13.6 26-1
8 8 Mr. Four Sevens 6.00 15.5 29-1
13 13 Amavi 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zipping Molly 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 Dreamed I Am Fast 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Anslie’s Gumdrop 3.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Beanie 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Onecallthatsall 4.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Hot Patootie 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Continental Red 15.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Rosie Sprit 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Bitsy’s Double Day 8.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Keep On Dreaming 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.