Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Liam’s Champ 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Pitch Clock 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Gifted 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Accel Rose 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Tryinmyheartout 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Nobleandgreenough 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Treaty Obligation 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Victory Way 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Whenlovetakesover 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Billy’s Got Issues 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 Gotta Connect 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Light the Way 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Good Rapport 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Milton the Monster 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Kinetic Sky 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Uncle Moonlight 3.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Market Alert 3.50 1.3 3-1
7 7 Famished 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Classier 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 American Gentleman 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Busher S.) – Busher S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ziaerati 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Asset Purchase 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Capella 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Shidabhuti 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Check Engine Light 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 La Vita Sofia 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Advanced Strategy 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Optic Way 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Jalen Journey 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Picasso 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Grumps Little Tots 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 My Friends Beer 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Caerus 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Mount Travers 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 It’s Mandatory 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Signal Corps 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Pop Coyer 3.50 1.7 3-1
9 9 Woodside Warrior 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Forty One Tales 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Runandscore 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Russi 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Makar 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Disarmed 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Central Station 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 9 Rotknee 2.50 1 2-1
6 5 Life Changer 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 3 Jake Rocks 4.00 1.9 4-1
2B 7 Handsome Cat 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 6 Allaboutthemoney 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Trash Talker 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 1 Ikigai 10.00 5.7 11-1
10 12 Quickflash 15.00 8.9 17-1
1A 8 Royal Tryst 15.00 8.9 17-1
1 2 Winter Son 15.00 8.9 17-1
8 10 Surprise Boss 20.00 12 23-1
9 11 Pressure 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Tom Fool H.) – Tom Fool H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Runninsonofagun 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Nakatomi 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Eastern Bay 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Drafted 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Little Vic 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Pirate Rick 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Chateau 10.00 4 8-1
8 8 Wendell Fong 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Gotham S.) – Gotham S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Eyeing Clover 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Slip Mahoney 5.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Lugan Knight 6.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Carmel Road 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Howgreatisnate 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Mr. Swagger 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Uncorrelated 10.00 2.8 5-1
14 14 Recruiter 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Fort Warren 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Transect 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Clubhouse 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 General Banker 30.00 8.9 17-1
12 12 Raise Cain 30.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Clear the Air 30.00 8.9 17-1
15 15 Radio Red 50.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Ready 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Callaloo 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Victorious Wave 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 King James 8.00 4 8-1
11 11 Motion to Strike 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Pine Valley 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Braciole 10.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Mach One 12.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Midnight Worker 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Buckingham Prince 15.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Per Diem 20.00 12 23-1
7 7 Charlie Five O 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.