Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Demon Hunter 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sneaky Allie Kat 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Chief Kimosabi 4.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Forged in Steel 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 R T’s d’Oro 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Ole Stud Muffin 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Stone Alliance 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Galaxy Thirtysix 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Zydeco Music 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Shades of Truth 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Ourperfectprincess 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Myfriendsawinner 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Commercial Flash 10.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 New Year’s Party 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Red Camelia S.) – Red Camelia S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 A G’s Charlotte 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 World War 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Winning Romance 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Free Like a Girl 2.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Cheapskate Diva 8.00 4 7-1
7 7 Fort Polk 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Wholelottamo 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Eve’s Delight 6.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Blessed Anna 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Classic King 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Ottothelegend 6.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Paynt Battle 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tapage 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Smokey Harbor 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Super Wise 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Vim and Vigor 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beleout 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Misty Day 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Ready for Change 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Shelley’s Money 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Donya Know It 4.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Rookery 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Edward J. Johnston Memorial S.) – Edward J. Johnston Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Who Took the Money 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Budro Talking 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mangelsen 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Big Chopper 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Highland Creek 5.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Blue Cheese 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Maga Man 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Wicked Rose 20.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Smarty Alex 10.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Changi 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dual Monarchy 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Midnight Pranks 5.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Silver Bull 15.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Rule Breaker 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Presider 3.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Gatlinburg 4.50 6 11-1
1 1 Bo Cruz 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Black Gold S.) – Black Gold S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Reckoning Force 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mazing Mark 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Winters Lion 4.50 6.1 12-1
5 5 Andthewinneris 2.50 6.1 12-1
9 9 Desert Duke 6.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Wonderful Justice (GB) 4.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Myredwhiteandblue 6.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Lord Donegal 6.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Tapio 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Big Bella Brown 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lt. Bonura 5.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Secret Vista 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Afleet Ascent 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Izzy’s Baby Boy 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Steal It Back 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Mr. Priority 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Rifle Man 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.