Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 5, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Super Quality 0.40 1 2-1
6 6 Brass Monkey 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Grand Again 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Chasin’ You 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Saratoga Strong 15.00 4 7-1
2 2 Tiza Brown 30.00 7 13-1
1 1 Awesome Weapon 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bourbon’s Hope 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Dee’s Speedstre 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Salute to America 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Romanoatsee 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 B C Glory Days 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Papi On Ice 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Try It Again 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 New York Supreme 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Our Rosie Diamonds 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Pretty Miss Keens 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Wicked Lady 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Riding On a Winner 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Predetermined 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Crystal Orb 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Wishing On a Star 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Welcometomyworld 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Afilada 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Cookie Crumbs 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Mean Mongol 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Shaymyname 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Germany Jayvo 20.00 5.6 10-1
6 6 Extessa 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lil Commissioner 0.60 1 2-1
4 4 Warrior in Chief 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Jumpster 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Goldini 10.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Kumar 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Mucho Sunshine 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Supply Chain 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Amundson 1.40 1 2-1
1 2 Cees Get Degrees 1.40 1 2-1
6 7 Happy Farm 1.60 1.1 2-1
4 4 Scilly Cay 4.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Reggae Music Man 6.00 3 6-1
2 1 Monday Morning Qb 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 A Dangerous Guy 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Toxic Gray 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Mama’s Gold 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 East Coast Girl 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Paros 8.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Valenzan Day 10.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Swifty Devil 10.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Camm’ Duke 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Playingwithmatches 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Sounds Spooky 50.00 9 17-1
Toxic Gray 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 My First Love 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Tempermental 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Bankers Daughter 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Bavarian Creme 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Left Leaning Lucy 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Meraviglioso 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Betty’s Smile 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dontbelate 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Prince of Joy 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Seanan 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Bingo John 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 El Mayor 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Sight Unseen 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Centavo 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Voliero 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Exxtop 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.