Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
1 Royal O’Haigain 1.80 1.00 2.60 2.20 2.10
6 Sweet Vidalia 4.50 3.72 3.60 2.40
5 Lil Adeau 3.50 3.60 2.20

$1.00 Exacta (1-6) Pays $4.20
$0.50 Trifecta (1-6-5) Pays $5.40
$0.10 Superfecta (1-6-5-2) Pays $6.09


RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
1 Lucky Deal 3.00 3.02 5.20 3.00 2.40
2 Debs Prayer 4.00 3.41 4.00 3.00
3 Graeme’s Deal 8.00 4.79 3.80

$1.00 Exacta (1-2) Pays $9.80
$0.50 Trifecta (1-2-3) Pays $15.60
$0.10 Superfecta (1-2-3-8) Pays $20.77


RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 Majestic Mandate 4.50 2.07 23.80 9.80 4.20
7 Holy City 4.00 4.06 7.20 3.20
6 Rammer Jammer 3.50 2.49 2.40

$1.00 Exacta (4-7) Pays $91.40
$0.50 Trifecta (4-7-6) Pays $163.20
$0.10 Superfecta (4-7-6-1) Pays $175.48


RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 Autumns Strong Man 5.00 6.07 18.00 6.20 5.40
2 Gutzy 2.50 2.55 4.00 3.00
3 Holy Bayou 8.00 6.35 6.60

$1.00 Exacta (4-2) Pays $31.90
$0.50 Trifecta (4-2-3) Pays $115.85
$0.10 Superfecta (4-2-3-5) Pays $122.83


RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
1 Slick and Fast 2.50 1.09 4.80 3.00 2.40
7 Righteous Freedom 6.00 1.85 5.20 4.40
5 Creekside 10.00 2.96 5.00

$1.00 Exacta (1-7) Pays $15.30
$0.50 Trifecta (1-7-5) Pays $56.25
$0.10 Superfecta (1-7-5-3) Pays $88.88


RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
6 Not So Close 3.00 2.07 5.20 3.20 3.00
5 Mytown Myrules 2.50 1.00 2.60 2.20
4 Zing 6.00 5.48 2.80

$1.00 Exacta (6-5) Pays $5.90
$0.50 Trifecta (6-5-4) Pays $12.45
$0.10 Superfecta (6-5-4-1) Pays $6.88


RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
4 Britain’s Kitten 3.00 1.69 6.60 3.00 2.20
6 Omaha Red 4.00 1.35 3.00 2.40
7 Portos 4.50 2.80 2.80

$1.00 Exacta (4-6) Pays $8.40
$0.50 Trifecta (4-6-7) Pays $21.40
$0.10 Superfecta (4-6-7-5) Pays $6.05


RACE NUMBER 8 (Allen Black Cat Lacombe Memorial S.) – Allen Black Cat Lacombe Memorial S.

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
8 Girl Named Charlie 5.00 6.27 15.40 6.60 3.40
5 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 10.00 8.00 9.80 4.60
1 Chop Chop 1.80 1.00 2.20

$1.00 Exacta (8-5) Pays $75.30
$0.50 Trifecta (8-5-1) Pays $85.75
$0.10 Superfecta (8-5-1-3) Pays $44.83


RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Official Results

Prgm Name ML Expected Win Place Show
2 Blue Light 3.00 1.40 4.00 3.00 2.10
5 Tim Tal 3.50 1.98 3.40 2.60
1 Rate Confirmation 8.00 2.06 6.80

$1.00 Exacta (2-5) Pays $6.90
$0.50 Trifecta (2-5-1) Pays $23.75
$0.10 Superfecta (2-5-1-3) Pays $32.87


Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.